$1m per "revenue writer" is extremely, extremely, extremely optimistic and just won't happen.
Rather than sign up new clients with massive invoices I expect we'll see more clients with smaller contract value come on board, and the big gains in ACV will come via increased adoption within existing clients. Clients are not going to turn up waving multi-million dollar checks... until the technology reaches greater adoption and acceptance. It's not like they are switching from another cloud based 3D geospatial analytics tool.
In general I think the revenue pipeline looks like
initial engagement: trial / pilot / POC or whatever OR a small contract for the equivalent purpose (i.e. client performing an implicit POC
after 3-12mo evaluation: sign initial contract for broader rollout OR increase to a larger contract as their POC proves successful
longer term: new opportunities identified & contract scope increased.
The talk about AWS is a good parallel. When AWS was starting out the number of clients who committed completely to that platform would be close to zero, if not zero. Instead companies would spend some budget on exploring and learning, evaluating, and possibly having some more flexible parts of their business move to that system as a pilot program. It was only after the benefits were shown to outweigh the costs & risks (i.e. fears) that the adoption accelerated.
The real prize for 3DP is in 5+ years, when everyone's phone has LiDAR, and more cars have LiDAR, and monitoring cameras are including LiDAR, and more drones with LiDAR are flying around. The feedback loop takes a while to build momentum. ACV growth will accelerate in the future.
12 months from now I expect about 100-150% growth in ACV, and as time goes on we'll see higher growth rates because existing clients will become more committed to the platform and increase budgets.
3DP Price at posting:
43.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
