Throwing something out there, interested if anyone else is gauging something similar.
Firstly:
originally I thought, with the way the announcements were written up, that Ganfeng would firstly aim to get a loan for the us$64m and have their own usd$40m on the line as a loan if they were unsuccessful securing.
Ive been revisiting this thought and it reads different to me now. the more I read it, the more this actually is put to them as an option of which they would rather.
secondly:
With the announcements I’ve read, I’m of the opinion Ganfeng will be become a Substantial holder of LithiumCo on demerger.
we know: FFX to hold approx 20%, FFX holders to hold a % of free shares… however it’s fairly obvious, given LithiumCo starts as a company in construction, they will require significant funds.
Ganfeng holds a bit of power here as if the choose to provide the capital, an additional us$24 by all parties to reach Capex US$194m
so LithiumCo would need an additional us$11m (45% to cover gov free carry) for construction costs plus you’d want atleast A$20m - $30m sitting in the bank to cover 4 years of directors fees / company costs without income ?
this opens the door further for Ganfeng to buy in a more substantial holding into LithiumCo. If you have a look at Ganfeng website, it’s common practice for them to hold a substantial holding in their partner.
FFX 20%, Ganfeng + instros 30%? , existing holders 50%
if we threw an initial opening market cap of say 200m for LithiumCo.
LithiumCo opens with A$60m (minus -a$15m construction + fees) approx a$45m in bank.
some obvious things here, Maybe they don’t need to sell 30%, maybe the initial deal will be more that market cap $200m, i prefer to downplay. But it has got me wondering and worth bit of discussion / people expertise on here.
thoughts?
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