57 million traded yesterday, open 30, low 29, high 30.5 close 30, 3 c down on the last price prior to TH.
This is a significant event from a charting point of view and tells an important and transparent story relevant to interpreting the chart. It pays to sit back and think this one through a bit, taking into account the facts we know.
The capital raising strengthens fundamentals significantly. The value dilution, relevant to the 33c SP valuation prior to TH, is negligible. You can do the sums.
So, if the SP value should be around 33, who would one sell at 29 or 30, and why
Retail investors have no reason to sell at that price, unless they were spooked by the market action yesterday, but that selling does not account for 57 m bits of paper.
Institutions which took part in the CR, receive a share plus half of an option for 30 c. The options are well out of the money but worth something.
By selling shares at 30 c and replacing those with shares with half an option attached, costing 30c, the institution just gets its options for free! Even when selling at 29, the option cost is only 2 ct.
Some institutions with no interest of investing in more IMU may well have subscribed to the CR for the sole purpose of securing free options. Others may have been allocated more stock than bargained for and have to lighten up a bit or try making a small trading profit later. Stock sold through that mechanism will go to new hands and broaden the shareholder base. All these machination serv to build on to a solid base around 30c which will become a strong support over the days to come. With so much good news in the pipeline and the financial muscle to call the shots in any negotiation, I can only see the SP go north from there. Just my opinion, DYOR Good luck to all traders and investors.
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