Interesting perspective, although I (personally) wouldn't go so far as to say it is "bearish", but more "realistic" as to the circumstances.
They talk about "limiting access for engineering and potential vendor inspections" - I see that as a positive. They are still trying to engage vendors, but it is just more difficult now.
Heated construction market and impact to timelines and costs - again, not necessarily bad, but realistic that it could cost more and take a bit longer to finalise the document. Bearish for me would be to say "vendors aren't interested" or "the costs are too high to progress".
"DFS still capable of being completed in the current quarter, but there are dependencies" - again fair enough, managing expectations, they should have just said "still capable of being completed this quarter, but more likely next quarter" and be done with it.
"dependent on receiving DPIE approval conditions as they may impact on things that weren't previously considered risky". Again, they are not saying DPIE will reject it, but they may have to jump through more hoops and impact timings and maybe cost more money - which all suck, but they aren't saying anything (yet?) about the project becoming unviable.
Agree water rights are critical, but as I said earlier, the state and federal government need people in work and revenues from GST and other taxes, as well as other flow on benefits to the economy. This is a substantial project that will mean a lot of revenue will flow through the coffers. All of this stimulus needs to be paid for somehow.
As for the last bit, I don't think that is the case, I would dare say Tropicana was about mitigating the hedges, stable revenues, the upside from the potential of tropicana expansion, locking in production and profits for the next 10 years when the POG is expected to rise given the ongoing impact of covid and printing money and inflation.
Again, these are just my thoughts, and maybe I am looking through rose coloured glasses, but then again, maybe I think there is more impetus for the share price to go up than it is to head down - given they have already "overpaid for Tropicana" and the SP has been beaten down (not to say it can't go down further however).
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