Ann: Underwritten Placement and Entitlement Offer to raise $35.6m, page-84

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Hottin

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31/07/21

18:41

Post #: 54931586
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Originally posted by Johnyb888 ↑

Hi NailsnglueThe short answer there is YES! Although if looking for a better time point to sell I would wait another year since the market usually only fully values profits when they have been proven and realized for some time.

Lets have a quick look at a possible valuation based on some numbers I personally find reasonable.

IO 62% price at the time 100 USDCAP production 10Mtpa 70% concentrate

Production cost 23 USD/62% equivalent CFR China as per 2017 PFS (Cost will have gone up but so has the price difference between grades so this realistic if not conservative).

Lets assume with dilution (capex will be funded part debt, part offtake partners, part dilution) we have SOI 1.5B

Gross profit would be 770M USD. Say after running cost and tax 500M USD or about 650AUD per annum

If we assume at a lower IO price the P/E ratio should be higher (no one wants to pay top dollar at the top of the market) but still a modest 10x we come to a market cap of about 6.5B. Let take off 500M as debt to get 6B.

That would leave a share price of $4 AUD

And I believe that is most certainly not a bull case. Some would think this way to conservative. But personally I would sign for that today if I could!

Not investment advise just my personal ponderings!

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Thanks Johny I'd see it this way.
10m x $50-$100/t profit = $500-$1,000m profit USD
I think P/E 5x is pretty fair = $2,500-$5,000m USD
SOI I hope under 1.2b but lets do 1.4b
That gives us $2.40-$4.80 AUD but sky is the limit plus divis... oh

CAP Price at posting: 16.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
16 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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