Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

NRZ

0.00%

0.4¢ neurizer ltd

Ann: First EPCC Contract Milestone achieved, page-13

First 13 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Jenkstar

1,128 Posts.

269

03/08/21

17:37

Post #: 55000939
Share

Originally posted by Jenkstar: ↑

Anyone guess really. I did a back of the fag packet calculation and came up with the following:

Todays MC is circa $100m (SP circa 13c)
Q&A details in 19niku’s post above quoted Justyn Peters talking about profit of $400m/yr if urea was $500/t.

Without dilution, etc and a 50% of profit as divi payout (other 50% retained to pay down debt etc) the shareholders would get a payout worth twice today’s MC which would be 13c. Of course to build a $3.2bn project will require debt and more equity so need to factor that in. If you assume some CR activities when SP rises but they raise say $400m at ave 26c, the SOI could end up with 2 new shares for every existing share and the divi would be reduced to say 4.5c

I expect that by the time we get to say to year 2-3 production we will have:

MC circa $3.2 bn
EBIT circa $400m/yr
SP maybe $1.30 (10 times today’s SP)
EPS of say 10cps
Dividend circa 5cps

My numbers could be wildly wrong so suggest your do your own numbers but for me Capital Growth of 1000% and an additional annual return of circa 35% pa on today’s investment is incredible. On the downside it could be half which is still incredible but on the other hand it could be higher which is even more spectacular. DYOR.

Expand

I need to get a new fag packet I think.

Should have stated undiluted divi payout would be twice today’s SP of 13.5 = 27c
Diluted divi would be say a third of the undiluted = 9c let say 10c

Return on today’s SP = 10/13.5 which is just under 75%. 10c is just under 8% dividend yield on a future $1.30 SP.

LCK Price at posting: 13.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
8 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

What's causing the cost-of-living crisis, and how to navigate it

M4M

Macro, Norden set up transport solutions initiative for West Pilbara

TLG

Talga Group wins key permit for flagship graphite mine in Sweden

MKT

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Week 42 Wrap: HotCopper's top picks; new ASX 200 record; world yawns at war

NVU

Nanoveu surges 10% after benchmark testing for new AI chip begins

MTH

Mithril's drilling in Mexico picks up silver at 997g/t, gold at 28g/t

SWP

Swoop lobs $18M offer at microcap telecom Vonex – in which it holds 19.9%

SNX

Sierra Nevada raises $2M for silver exploration at Blackhawk

IRX

InhaleRX snags $38.5M in funding from VC biotech funder Clendon