Not sure about what you mean by exploration and growth virtually replacing the decreased capex spend Spec? From what I have read about 25-35 million a year will be spent on M&A and exploration. Capex is forecast to drop 82 million just in FY22.
With all these higher grade UG mines finally ramped up, I actually believe they are a good chance of producing over 270,000 oz for FY22. If they could increase their higher grade UG feed,and if they could increase their head grade to at least 2.4g, and run their processing plants to nameplate capacity they will actually hit the 270,000oz easily.
Plant capacity 3,900,000 tons of ore x 2.4g = 9,360,000g / 31 = 301,000oz
Cashflow
60,000oz hedged x $2133 = 127,980,000
210,000oz x $2450 = 514,500,000
Total = $642,480,000
Expenses
270,000oz x mid AISC $1600 = $432,000
CAPEX = $110,000,000
Growth & exploration = $30,000,000
Total = $572,000,000
Net Profit = $70,480,000 for FY2022 at current gold price
If they have finally got there shit together and actually hit 300,000oz they would make a net profit of nearly $100,000,000
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