Hi Netraam,
I cannot offer any investment advice.
However, if we look at some recent examples...
OBM - since first gold pour, it has struggled... (down perhaps 30%)
EMR - since first pour, the stock is down 15%
WAF - since first pour (15 months later) it has more than doubled
CMM - since first pour, its up around 10%.
So.... a mixed bag. However, lots of caveats, all different projects, different locations, different management teams.
Of the 4 the last 3 have very strong boards (CAI has arguably a very good board, lots of production experience, which is really what counts). Very good projects too. OBM is a bit of an outlier, but then again, perhaps it was the logical highest risk of being an under performer.
What to do with CAI, really depends on how long you want to hold, why you hold, how much risk you want to take etc.
I don't plan to sell any shares in CAI over the medium term. But that is just me.
As
@Pinecone54 mentions, CAI has a decent plan for newsflow around the time of gold pour, whether or not that is carefully planned, or simply, just the timeline required, who knows. I just like CAI because, its almost the last of the developers on the ASX, that already has another producer holding some of its shares. If other producers like it, that alone is a good indication that its worth more than, well... other developers that don't have a similar situation. Nice big open pit projects are becoming quite rare on the ASX too. I note Dave mentions that Blue Spec could be brought online in as little as 9 months, from a decision perspective. Stage 1 production profile as he says, just the beginning.
btw- in the presentation, the MD states first pour will be early in the second Q of 2022 (so.. April seems to be their target).
Seems like they have a fair bit of wiggle room considering they are already 50% complete on the build. From other projects, I would have thought they might be able to bring forward production, but... I get the feeling, that is less likely with this project. Cannot really say why, except, the board have been very conservative, with pretty much everything, so... I guess that won't change (I am actually happy with this, as one issue most new projects have faced, is turning on the plant too early). Happy to be proven wrong of course.
