Well Well Well...after the reverend 2.0(R2) put up his 240mill FCF forecasts I was intrigued.
There after I have made an excel spreadsheet... I know wonders will never cease...
I have to say at current(emphasis on current) prices it paints a prettier picture for POS than has been seen for many moons.
I have tried to make it as simple as possible and gone for the AISC, as I am not a forensic accountant like the R2, and am usually into the Goldies not Nickel.
I have kept the assumptions in the attached of the R2s as to 16000 ton produced but put the option to add whatever tonnage you want to give a quick chart which will give a basic idea of potential or not depending on how much they can pull out per annum. this can be done by putting the tonnage produced from the list at the bottom in the top cell for Total lbs produced. (yes you'll have to make your own sheet)
As became apparent pretty quick R2s 240mill FCF(highlighted in green with current NP of $12) may have been a tad optimistic but as I am not truly aware of all his assumptions I may be being harsh. For mine the AISC is to the high side as I hoped to include as many items as possible so the profits would be close to net. I am of the mind that the orange highlighted row is the base case for profitability as I have very high doubts the POS could ever achieve an AISC of 3.38usd/lb!
When looking at current NP movements and where losses would occur I think it paints an easier to assess picture of why POS hasn't gotten off the ground in the past and why I believe the AISC will be of the high side( lets face it if the AISC was in the 3s and 4s usd, POS would have turned the switch long ago). It also shows how quickly this could go pear shaped if the NP drops back.
EPS is simply profits /3billion soi. The yellow highlights give you an indication of what could be again depending on ACTUAL tonnage produced, AISC and NP.
Nickel is fickle but if the current trajectory of the NP continues then there is good potential here IF they can pull it off!
Itwill also depend on how strict the EV producers in Europe are on the Chinese using NPI for EVgrade nickel and the environmental costs of converting class2 to class1.
Plenty of IFs but when we have a pull back in the NP I will most likely take a small position myself
All of this is in my opinion and to be taken with a literal sprinkling of salt as stated earlier I am no accountant or investment guru
just putting my musings out there
T
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