valuing an oil company - takeover timing, page-9

guttedsquid: "Oil price is also a big factor".
In my view, future oil price is in fact the decisive factor in allocating "correct" value for a take-over. IF (as I tend to believe) the price of oil will continue to go up (peak oil on the one hand and continued big demand for oil from around the world, but particularly oil demand increases from places like China and India - more than a 1000 new cars getting on the road in Bejing daily just being a small example...), THEN this increased oil price must be factored into the equation. It will make a huge difference depending on the outlook on oil pricing that you use for your calculations: Defensively you might calculate with A$ 50 - A$ 75 or if you have a more progressive outlook with A$ 100 or if you have a more "bullish" outlook with A$ 150....
Same as yourself, I believe that for a take-over bid to be successful it would/will have to be certainly in the double digits.
All JIMHO, of course.
wasa