Oh my head my head:) Trying to see straight atm after a big night so if this post seems skittish I'm sorry. Below are some of my own workings and they can be taken with a grain of salt as there are many factors at play here, but I've attempted to do my worst and cut expectations/earnings to a bare minimum to try and keep it real, anything above my expectations are a blue sky bonus. Obviously this is for a longer term holder and I am fully aware that things take time and I am expecting delays, yet management have shown everyone that they can and will do it.
Firstly some quick notes for things to look out for, please feel free to add anything and please let me know if I have missed anything, and yes some are assumptions:
CONTRACT MANUFACTURING: 2008/09 - Preliminary production of Insulin Pump Device has started, more to be heard on this by 09 end/full year report. 2009 - Prefilled Orthopaedic Device, more news on this product by 09 end/full year report. 2009/2010 - In one report they actually make a statement that UNI are in negotiations with B.Braun for a 4 year agreement on a syringe product, await with interest!!
UNITRACT 1ML SYRINGE: 4th Qtr 09 - Commercial release after product ageing tests. Talks with interested pharmaceutical and healthcare companies located in the US, Europe and Asia are underway, current orders received.
UNITRACT RANGE (3/5ml etc): 2010/2011 Over the course of the next 18 months (2010 - 2011) will look for launch/ramp up of these products. Expect/think the new manufacturing plant that the company is currently (June qrt 09) in search of will aid in housing these or the ramp up of RTF?? Watch for more news here including other manufacturing partners maybe? (KDL) Await news from here also.
RTFS 2010 (end) 40m unit line ready 2011 (end) 100m unit line ready 2014 (??) 400m unit line ready
THINGS TO WATCH (RTFS): 2009 October (end) -120 days up for Sanofi to create their exclusivity list and submit to UNI 2009 December (end) - Both parties to agree on list contents/exclusivity 2009 end/2010 start - UNI able to sign agreements with other pharma for drugs not on exclusivity list (UNI have been approached already)
LISTING: 2009/2010 Listing was flagged for 09 end on US exchange, more news here with full year report?
Now down to the business end. I've revised some of my earnings from yesterday as they came from old notes and I'm now using 220m shares on issue, I think I had 210m in the old. This also doesn't account for oppies outstanding but when these vest I'm sure that we will have the clinical range in full swing and if anything this could add at least a few cents eps. The contract manufacturing part I will keep the same throughout as the reports vary, of note from the last quarterly was the significant reduction in cash outflow to only $500k. Hope we hear some good news from this soon also.
0.0363c eps EBITDA - Contract Manufacturing worked on $2m per quarter, if expenses here have stopped then this could rise. Also of note is that staffing costs eat at this atm but this is because of the other things such as 1ml and RTFS, once these items become cash positive the contract work will be all the sweeter.
0.0268c eps EBITDA - 40m 1ml unit sales. Taken from figures previously supplied. Of note is that if UNI were to spend $1m they could up production by 30m units p/a now that they have bedded everything down. Expect full clinical range ramp up as they have previously mentioned it as a key part of the business model and now they are ready.
0.059c eps EBITDA - 40m RTF unit sales. This figure is probably lower than it should be as it is using the profit forecast from the 400m production figures (said to be EBITDA $130m plus and works out at around 0.325c profit per unit). Economies of scale would suggest that adding at least 30% to the eps for the 40m and if not the 100m units p/a to get a more realistic price. For this I will not factor that in and leave it as blue sky:)
.059c - RTFS .0268c - 1ml .0363c - Contract Gives approx 0.122c eps EBITDA So let's lob off 30% (tax etc) to get 0.0854c Sector average PE is around 14.13x, so approx = $1.20 per share
*In this I will keep the 1ml and Contract Manufacturing with no growth and show the RTFS growth only
.2068c - RTFS .0268c - 1ml .0363c - Contract Gives approx 0.2699c eps EBITDA So let's lob off 30% (tax etc) to get 0.1889c Sector average PE is around 14.13x, so approx = $2.64 per share
*In this I will up the 1ml to 80m units, keep the RTFS at 140m units and keep Contract Manufacturing with no growth.
.2068c - RTFS .0418c - 1ml (changed ratio as per previous report but if this is to many different customers it may stay at higher earnings as discount might not apply) .0363c - Contract Gives approx 0.2849c eps EBITDA So let's lob off 30% (tax etc) to get 0.1994c Sector average PE is around 14.13x, so approx = $2.79 per share
*In this I will keep the 1ml and Contract Manufacturing with no growth from number 3 and show the RTFS growth to 400m units.
.650c - RTFS .0418c - 1ml .0363c - Contract Gives approx 0.7281c eps EBITDA So let's lob off 30% (tax etc) to get 0.509c Sector average PE is around 14.13x, so approx = $7.13 per share
These are just my personal scratchings and I am by no means an analyst. I haven't even entertained in the above 1 billion units or any growth with the clinical range at all. I will update my notes when I know more about this and what is happening with the contract work. Also of note is if we float in the US there will be more shares on issue, I don't mind as this means we will have minimal/if any debt and the capital to ramp up production lines and meet the above timings even quicker. Also of thought is that when such growth is apparent we could see higher PE ratios due to forward looking investors. In the US it isn't uncommon for such companies to operate at 20 - 30x earnings either.
Gluck all.........................:)
UNI Price at posting:
48.5¢ Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
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