I understand that it is most likely due to a recent good run of low losses. The provision rate is the expected provisions divided by loan receivables. When there has been a good run of low losses, the expected losses are not "exhausted" and the % provision actually increases.
The low losses would be a combination of government stimulus, forbearance measures, etc. But there is expectation that this is temporary, and actual losses will catchup with expected losses.
It's not very intuitive, that a period of low losses pushes up provision percentage.
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