Alright let me go into true bear territory. My worst case scenario:
1. Despite the UN, EU, all scientists, and concerned citizens, Sweden and their environmental wing declines to step up to the plate. Sweden's government decides to delay permits until Talga has jumped through so many hoops that everything has been delayed another 12-24 months.
2. After this delay, talga faces expected and unexpected delays in setting up the mine, adding another 50% to capex and another 12-24 months to the timeline.
3. 2030 comes around, and I am shaking my head, but finally, the mine is online.
Elon Musk has said that he will take whatever quality battery materials people will sell him. All batteries will first go to cars, with excess supply going to house batteries and longer term storage.
Somewhere, someone will need quality graphite or graphene for batteries. And, to end this story, global markets tend to double every 9 years on average, over the last 90 years. Even with this horrifying cataclysm of woe, talga will easily outperform the market.
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