While a double dip recession is a possibility, isn't today's situation is very different to the 1939 cenerio? I'm sure we don't need to debate the differences with the current global economy, information age, global gov. intervention etc. Even the worst doomsdayers have now lowered their % forecasts of a double dip recession to single didgets. (Rubini is a perfect example) Would you agree with his and the comments of his peers or do you currently know more then even those doomsdayers? Please enlighten.
The commercial issue is there as you mentioned though due to the actions of capital raising accross the board could the issues be viewed as a number of small ripples that will hit the economy rather than one major event as was the subprime? Leases are spread out over years writedowns are staggered etc. I did have dinner in NYC last night with a commercial broker who mentioned empty buildings and debt levels, though in the same sentence discussed emergence of startups and the chinese filtering into the spaces. Even Ivonka Trump said its not as bad as the market has discounted in her interview last week. Bskeer1 may have more information, I'm not sure. ?? Couldn't one assume that alot of those toxic and distressed assets that you are referring to, could be purchased by those companies that repaired their balance sheets through capital raising initiatives and have their eye out to purchase and grow with that cash?
In GMG as with most stocks, we have had an approximate 5 week continuous rise (not to mention the phenomenal rise from March lows when you started discounting this rally more than 400% ago), would you not expect that it is now normal to have some type of a pull back and consolidation/ correction? What would you own now? Cash? Short? Long gold? your wisdom is interesting.
China's monitary policies can change over night. In the years that I have lived there I have seen numerous housing bubbles exchange rate fluctuations, labor policy changes etc etc. I think the fact that the govt. has this control will enable them to adjust as required to suit the current situation. Didn't the most recent drop occur with the Chinese government tightening policies thus infact slowing or cooling off the bubble that you mentioned? Shouldn't this be a good thing supporting your bubble arguement?
Are all your arguements GMG specific or are you talking the whole stock market? The events you are discussing surely would effect the entire market? Why are you only warning GMG shareholders? Would you not say that some companies can still go up? Lets view the GMG positives, I'll leave the negatives for you.
balance sheet fixed +ve. opportunties to buy distressed assets with cash +ve. Gearing lowered significantly +ve. write downs expected & already priced in to SP +ve. Loan obligations covered and banks happy to relend +ve. Owner operated and owner prepared to bank his own house on this company +ve. 1:1 issue for current shareholders +ve Commercial property along with employement are all lagging indicators. How about industrial production +tive for the first time in over a year. How about Japans GDP? +ve in the first time in years. Germany and france? +ve Housing in the US seems to have bottomed +ve
no doubt you would like to focus on dilution of GMG stock. Though assuming you do take up the offer, dilution isn't really a factor is it? Dilution was also an arguement for MQG recently but unwarranted as the stock has kept going up and shown a large % gain.
Either way, we are 100's of percent up from the lows. We have a GMG cap raise at an odd 20 to 30% discount to current SP coming up. Do you believe a pullback drop in the broad market & specifically GMG SP is a big issue right now or do you believe we will test the March lows?
Would love to hear your wisdom and advice on the above.
Did you also miss out on the rally that began its pause on Thursday?
Do you normally make your judgement on the lagging or leading indicators?
It seems very early to be calling this pullback a slide into the abyss, we have only had a couple of days in the red. Are you long term or short term view?
GMG Price at posting:
$2.65 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)