shell, page-19

hey donga.

I agree with you. just making the point that even IF they do...who cares.

In my humble newbie but stocktops-resistant opinion, the order of importance is:

1. CSEM - if this is good then SP will go up.
2. If shell take up option then SP will go up faster.

As a matter of fact, here is a contrarian apprach which will scare the crap out of some, but this is a forum so I'll post if for your thoughts:

Say Shell chooses NOT to pursue the option. The SP will plummet somewheast to say 8c. Then the CSEM results are released. I expect people will read the "Shell no interested" part of the announcement and then panic sell. Astute investors will then read the "CSEM shows 1b barrels" and then buy up on the bargain price. SP goes up due to FAR's IGV rather than an immediate interest from a major.

But...what are the chances that CSEM is good and shell say no.

So my (now longwinded) point is - read the CSEM. If its good, you'll win either way regardless of what shell does.

cheers.
DC