That's exactly my point, you're trying to argue your speculation is right and everyone else's speculation is wrong. All we can go off is the facts.
The facts are in patients <65 who had ARDS:
- Rem-l reduced 60 day mortality by 46% (p=0.048)
- Rem-l reduced 90 day mortality by 48% (p=0.038)
- Rem-l + dex reduced 60 day mortality by 75% (p=0.006)
- Rem-l + dex reduced 90 day mortality by 77% (p=0.0037)
- survival benefits were accompanied by significant improvements in ventilator-free days, respiratory function as assessed by ARDS severity, and overall clinical improvement on a 7-point ordinal scale
- Dex alone provided no survival benefit in control patients
Mesoblast have indicated that they had a meeting with the FDA and so we should expect the formal outcome of this meeting within 30 days (by 30 August).
To illustrate the power of this treatment, let's look at how many patients <65 have died in the US from COVID-19, 124,396 so far. If this was to happen again in the future Rem-L + dex has the power to reduce this by 77%, saving 95,000 lives.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1191568/reported-deaths-from-covid-by-age-us/Additionally, let's look at all cause ARDS in the US, causing on average 67,719 deaths in <65s annually (before covid). If Rem-l + dex has the same effect in all cause ARDS, then it has the potential to save 52,000 lives every year.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5122485/Noting that no treatment has provided a significant survival benefit in any patient population for ARDS. I don't know how Novartis could walk from this given the huge potential of the all cause ARDS market.
(20min delay)