Some technical analysis recently has suggested that we have bearish sentiment and support has broken. Unless the analyst is specifically talking about short term moves(from a daily chart?) this is simply not the case. As far as I'm concerned, we are still bullish technically and very much so. Nothing has happened on the charts that hasn't been discussed in previous analysis and as such we are still waiting for the bull move to take hold. Anyone can pick out a dozen indicators and say "look, these are all bearish", but they hold little meaning in the real world unless taken in context looking at the picture as a whole. There are still no bear signals despite what some would have you believe, unless they are looking at short term, which is pointless at the moment due to the fundamental story. We have had bear signals on this swing low on timeframes up to the daily chart, and the market simply ignores them. The market has zero interest in any bearish technical indications. On our run up to 0.495 I mentioned numerous times the need for a pullback/retrace/breather/consolidation. We are now coming to the end of that period. Our recent run down to 0.28 should be seen as a positive, I know I see it that way and have expanded on the reasons why a number of times. I will do so again for those who are genuinely interested and would like an update, because sadly these threads have become so full of crap lately and have muddied the larger picture.
Weekly
Looking at support and resistance levels, the higher the TF the more weight the level carries, and then on any particular chart I would put the S&R levels (weightiest to the least) in the following order:
- s200
- e21
- 38.2% & 61.8% fibs (and relevant extensions associated with fib rules)
- e55
- 50.0% fib
- Trend-lines (depending on length of observance)
We see on the weekly chart below that the e21 is currently our main support level. This is about as big of a support as you can ask for without looking at the monthly chart. I don't really expect to see this broken, but if it does we have the 61.8% fib to back us up. Understand that for 'support to be broken' it requires a weekly close under the level. I'm not at all surprised to see the price pop back up today even printing a new high for the last 2 weeks; as I said the market is just not interested in bearish signals.
What is really nice to see is the buildup of the bullish divergence shown at B. When we start to move this should have some really solid momentum which gives me confidence in my fib targets below. When we came out of the 4 month consolidation at the beginning of the year we also had bullish divergence(A) that added to our momentum and I believe played a key role in our run to 0.495. I wouldn't be at all surprised to see our next run(over many months) have a similar % gain which would reach our D2 fib target outlined below. We certainly have the fundamental story for much more.
Looking at fib trade rules A-B-C-D, a retrace from the highs at 0.495(B) to where we are now at the 50%(C) gives us a target(D1) of 161.8% at 0.74. First technical target will be the highs at 0.495, followed by some games around 0.65 zone. If we get a clear break and retest of the highs at 0.495 then I believe D1 will be hit at 0.74. Then if 0.74 is broken, tested and holds as support (bounces off it) the 261.8% is on the table at $1.145. These fib targets
will not change unless the 61.8% fails, because even if the retrace continues lower from here to the 61.8% (new C)at 0.245 and then holds we have exactly the same targets(D) mentioned above.
DailyThe daily chart has our green w5 turning up again indicating this could be the start of the bull run. What is interesting is the volume patterns at the bottom of the lows. This indicates the transfer of impatient to the patient. This IS how the big players accumulate. They can hide just about everything, but it shows up in the volume. Can it be argued that it is big players selling? No, because the price has not dropped, the volume has contributed to the stabilisation of the price thus it is accumulation.
I understand there could be many nervous people on these forums, largely from reading all the drivel posted. One cannot read rubbish and expect it to not effect their view, even if you think you can handle it. If you are happy with your investment and nothing has changed materially (for the worse) then the ignore function is such a helpful thing. I have been very liberal with it lately, even people in the past who have made meaningful contributions but are now just egging on rubbish and engaging morons have made it on my my list, and it is so much better. Another helpful tool is to follow the posters you value, then you get a notification when the contribute and it can make sifting through the sewer for gems easier.
Fundamentally I'm stoked with IMU and technically I'm just as happy. Can things change? Yes of course, however at the moment I'm really looking forward to the rest of this year.
(20min delay)