That's my understanding too. But more likely in small EV's and ESS applications. CATL expects to start commercial production of sodium cells sometime in 2023. CATL's focus with sodium is inline with their goal to grow market share in ESS applications, for which sodium cells can supplement LFP cells. However, and from what I have researched, sodium cells will replace only ~10% of LFP cells for said specific applications.
Long term forecasts for Carbonate / hydroxide cell mix is 30/70 by 2030. That being the case, sodium cells at a maximum would represent 3% of market share, however, it's not possible to use sodium to supplement all LFP applications, (eg. short range Tesla M3), in turn, sodium market share is likely to less than 3%.
The above is based on my research, so do your own.
Sodium Ion batteries, page-28
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