What is it that we expect in the annoucement? And if that expectation was actually announced what could be the possible result in SP.
The known news drifting around these forums and the street could be summerised as
- european debt sorted out
- australian debt generally ok
- asset sales leading to available cash and debt reduction
-Lower overhead structure taking effect
The other news that could creep into the announcement could be summerised as
- fee earnings report resulting from "Duke" activites.
- Closure of positions or partial payout of VCS investments. Just say 1 or 2 investments got repositioned giving Valad a 25% of investment funds returned. I think the market has priced these investments at zero and effectively written them off. Therefore any return on investment must be extremely positive. I would think valad would have been very busy trying to salvage any value out of these investments.
- McCabe. What if valad announced they have enough cash to pay McCabe out or have deferred the debt of 12 months therefore eliminating dilution risk.
My simple mind thinks that if any or all of the above three possible points were to be included in an announcement the effect of SP would have to be positive. Could someone with more knowledge confirm if any of these assumptions ring true and if so what rises in SP are possible.
thanks
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