market not convinced or.............., page-19

Gotta laugh at posts saying the Shell result has already been built into the current SP. IMO if FAR's SP lingers at these current levels or in 20's, if Shell opt in & CSEM shows 500 mill to 1 bill boe potential with the same risk assessment as a recent Rocksource announcement for their Senegal block (low/medium risk & 50% drilling success rate) than IMO FAR will never ever even get close to spudding a well.

Whoever doesn't think that takeover bids won't happen they obviously have done no research on the fierce competition for African Oil between the USA & China alone without even taking the rest of the world into account.

FAR with a market cap of only $100 mill US & a $65 mill free carry for the first well would have to be the best bet in the casino for a lot of Chinese companies. Net take over amount of only $35 mill for a potential of 200 millboe would be the bargain of the year & make ME the laughing stock of the world oil industry.

I'm sure Shell are also aware of this & won't want to loose 200 mmboe at near 2P odds for such a rediculous amount.

200 millboe multiplied by $10 to $15 (2P value) places a potential value on FAR Senegal licences at between $2 Bill to $3 bill. Great buying if you want to shell out only $35 mill net on a takeover bid with a CSEM results indicating a 50/50 chance or better of taking home 200 mill + barrels & have Shell do the work for them. That’s a potential return of 57 to 85 times their initial outlay. Not a lot of risk when the cost of a wildcat well alone in any lease is around $60 mill offshore.

If the Shell CSEM result supports the 3D seismic result and there's anywhere near 1 bill boe on offer, IMO the only way Shell/FAR will be able to retain FAR's present position is for the SP to have a dramatic increase.

As for anyone that thinks the SP will remain at the current level if Shell exercise the option, all I can say is good luck if you want to buy in at these cheap levels after.

Look at MMR’s SP of 0.35 after only one ASX media release & a 6 year old seismic survey. No CSEM survey & everyone's excited about a supposed oil slick on sea surface. I would have thought before you got too excited about this, you'd wait for a CSEM. If oil can come out, I would have thought there's the possibility of the cap being broken & a reservoir full of saltwater. Isn't that why Shell are carrying out a CSEM in Senegal. The HUNT OIL & FAR Seismic Survey was carried out using newer technology in 2007 which has already indicated a reservoir of 1 Bill + boe potential. The CSEM will give Shell a better indication of what it is full of.

I’m sure there’s readers on the FAR thread that also hold MMR. Maybe they can post some facts on why they justify FAR's current SP at 0.12 with a bill+ boe potential & Shell as a JV partner if the CSEM supports the 3D data and then justify why MMR's SP is 0.35 supported only by a Seismic survey & while they are still trying to find/raise capital to drill the first well with a tight time frame without a CSEM survey to de-risk it. Santos also drilled in the same lease & came up with only a minor gas show & I assume they did this using seismic only.

We all know the risk & downside for the SP if Shell opt out, but for now I’m comfortable with the research I’ve done & wait for the Shell announcement to deliver a Hardman type ending. If not I’m sure a cashed up FAR will live on to fight another day. Goodluck to all that are still in.

Please DYOR