SPEC BUYWednesday, 11 August 2021Bardoc Gold (BDC)Aphrodite Front and CentreAnalyst | Royce HaeseQuick ReadWe have updated our model to factor in a mine-sequencing study recently announced by Bardoc. The updated plan brings forward gold concentrate production from Aphrodite to the early years of the project. All other inputs in our model remain unchanged. In our model this adjustment results in peak gold production of 166koz in year three. Higher gold production earlier improves our valuation to $0.14 per share, previously $0.12 per share.Aphrodite Front and CentreStudy Review: Bardoc has announced that it is studying an alternate mine plan to its March DFS. The study will see planned production of concentrate from refractory ore at Aphrodite brought forward. Bardoc says the key benefit of this plan is increased gold production in early years of the project resulting in stronger operational cash-flow.The construction of a float circuit with the initial 2.1Mtpa processing facility build will see pre-production capex increase, mostly offset by delaying the road and rail re-alignment required prior to developing Excelsior. An updated study is expected from Bardoc end of August. GR Engineering (ASX:GNG) has been announced as preferred tenderer and will assist with the study.Exploration Potential Remains: Last week Bardoc also commenced an exploration programme at Zoroastrian and released exploration drill results from North Kanowna Star. From a resource base of ~3Moz Au, Bardoc currently only has ~1Moz in Reserve. Regional opportunities remain but, in our view, biggest near-term potential upside is in extensions to the underground projects. Both Aphrodite and Zoroastrian remain open at depth and have parallel lodes not currently in the plan. Exploration success here will extend underground mine life and provide higher margin ounces longer term. Current Price ValuationCode: Sector:$0.07 $0.14BDC Metals and Mining* All figures in AUD unless stated otherwise 1,735 Market Cap ($M): 121 Net cash ($M Mar 21) 13 Enterprise value ($M): 109Shares on Issue (M):52 wk High/Low (ps):12m av. daily vol. (Mshs): 3.58P/E (x) 5.6 EV/EBITDA (x) 1.9Financials:FY23eRevenue ($M) 123 EBIT ($M) 43 NPAT (A$M) 22Net assets ($M) 125 Op CF ($M) 41Per share data:EPS (c) 1.3 Dividend (cps) 0.0 Yield (%) - CF/Share (cps) 2.3Prod (koz Au) 52.9Share Price Graph and trading volumes (msh)0.12 25000$0.10 $0.07 Key MetricsFY23eFY24e FY25e1.8 1.4 0.9 0.7FY24e FY25e279 327 101 129 66 88189 268 89 1243.8 5.1 0.0 0.0 - - 5.1 7.2119.8 140.2 0.10 0.08 0.06 0.04 0.02 0.00200001500010000 development and road/rail re-alignment by two years, and brought forward construction Argonaut’s mining scenario and valuation: We have updated our model to assess the impact of the change in mine-sequencing. In our model we have pushed back Excelsior 5000 0of the float circuit and development of Aphrodite by two years. The only other input adjusted in our model is haulage distances to account for the alternate location of the processing facility. Under the revised mine-sequencing scenario we estimate the Bardoc Gold project to have an NPV7 of $257M (up from $209M). Bardoc has scope for further improvement in project valuation through underground mine-life extension.RecommendationWe maintain our speculative buy recommendation with an updated valuation of $0.14 per share. Please refer to important disclosures at end of the report (from page 8)Financial Advisers | Stockbroking & Research | Special Situations Financing | Page 1Apr-2021 Mar-2021 Feb-2021 Jan-2021 Dec-2020 Nov-2020 Oct-2020 Sep-2020 Aug-2020 Jul-2020 Jun-2020 May-2020 Apr-2020 Bardoc GoldRecommendation Speculative Buy Current Price $0.07 Valuation $0.14Equities ResearchAnalyst: Royce HaeseMetals & Mining 1,735 $121Wednesday, 11 August 20212024E 2025E 2026E5.1 7.2 8.0 1.4 1.0 0.9 3.8 5.1 5.9 1.8 1.4 1.2 0.0 0.0 0.00.0% 0.0% 0.0% 12.3 23.9 56.8 46% 55% 70% 49% 46% 43% 28% 4% 0%2024E 2025E 2026E1.8 1.7 2.2 1.71 2.82 2.53 0.92 0.91 0.91 120 140 16679 91 79 1196 1100 1078 3 3 3 1249 1179 1167 25 46 18 1817 1790 16192024E 2025E 2026E0.75 0.75 0.75 1750 1750 1750A$M A$/sh257 0.15 77 0.04 -56 -0.03 13 0.01 0 0.00 35 0.02 0 0.00 -89 -0.05 236 0.14Director, Non-Executive Chairman Chief Executive Officer Non-Executive Director Non-Executive Director Non-Executive Director Non-Executive Director SectorIssued Capital (Mshs) Market Cap (M) Profit & loss ($M) 30 JuneSales Revenue- Impairments and otherNPAT -11 22 66 88Cash flow ($M) 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E+ Revenue 0 123 279 327 - Cash costs -6 -67 -153 -169 - Forwards 0 0 0 0 -Tax payments 0 -7 -29 -29 + Interest & other -5 -9 -8 -5 Operating activities -11 41 89 124 - Property, plant, mine devel. -206 -24 -25 -46 - Exploration -2 -2 -2 -2 - Deffered Consideration 0 0 0 0 Investment activities -208 -26 -27 -48 + Borrowings 132 0 -40 -40 - Dividends 0 0 0 0 + Equity 88 0 0 0 Financing activities 220 0 -40 -40 Cash change 1 15 22 36Balance sheet 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025ECash & bullion 17 32 54 90Other Current Assets 0 0 0 0Total current assets 17 32 54 90Property, plant & equip. 208 218 218 234 Investments/other 0 0 0 0 Total non-curr. assets 208 218 218 234 Total assets 225 250 272 324 Trade payables 46 11 11 13 Short term borrowings 0 40 40 40 Other 14 22 20 30 Total curr. liabilities 59 33 31 44 Long term borrowings 132 92 52 12 Other 00002022E 2023E 2024E 2025E0 123 279 3270 0 0 0 0 -58 -140 -154 0 -3 -7 -8-6 -6 -6 -6-6 -67 -153 -169 EBITDA -6 56 127 159 - margin 0% 46% 45% 48% -D&A 0 -14 -26 -30 EBIT -6 43 101 129 + Finance Income/Expense -5 -9 -8 -5 PBT -11 33 93 123 - Tax expense 0 -10 -28 -37Financial ratiosGCFPSCFREPSPERDPSYieldInterest cover ROCEROE GearingOperations summaryBardoc ProjectOre processed (Mt) Head grade (g/t) Met. recoveryGold prodn (kozs)Cost per milled tonne (A$/t) Cash costs pre royalty (A$/oz) Sustaining capital ($M)All in sustaining costs (A$/oz) Growth capital ($M)CAIC (A$/oz)Price assumptions2023EA¢ 2.3 X 3.0 A¢ 1.3 X 5.6 A¢ 0.0 % 0.0% x 4.6 % 20% % 27% % 74%2023E1.0 0.66 0.91 5358 1118 1 1178 24 20512023E+ Other income/forwards- Operating costs- Royalties- Corporate & administration Total Costs AUDUSD 0.75 Gold 1750 Total non-curr. liabil. Total liabilitiesNet assets132 191 3492 52 12 125 83 56 125 189 2682023E 2024E 2025E24 3 0 0.00 0.00 0.00 2984 2986 2986 0 0 0Valuation summaryBardoc project 7% real after tax DR ExplorationCorporate overheadsCash and bullionDebtTax benefitHedging Option/equity dilution NAVDirectors, managementTony Leibowitz Robert Ryan John Young Rowan Johnston Neil Biddle Peter ButtigiegTop shareholdersPeter ButtigiegFIL Investment Management (Singapore) Neil BiddleResources Mar '21Bardoc Gold ProjectMeasured & indicated InferredBardoc Mining Inventory Mar '21TOTAL INVENTORYUnderground Open PitsM shs %78.0 4.5 64.1 3.7 38.3 2.2Kozs Mkt cap/oz3,073 402,055 1,018Kozs1,149 106556 593 Shares 2022EMt54.636.5 18.1Mtg/t Au1.801.70 1.80g/t Au New shs issued/exerciseable Average issue price Ordinary shares - end Diluted shares - end1224 0.07 2959 295917.6 2.024.8 3.58 12.8 1.44Financial Advisers | Stockbroking & Research | Special Situations Financing | Page 2 Bardoc has commenced a cash- flow optimisation study centred on bringing planned production of concentrate from Aphrodite forward in the mine planBardoc: Aphrodite Front and CentreStudy ReviewBardoc has announced that it is commencing a study to investigate an alternate mine plan to its March DFS. Bardoc has also announced GR Engineering (ASX:GNG) as preferred tenderer, GR Engineering will assist with the study. The study will see planned production of concentrate from refractory ore at Aphrodite brought forward. Bardoc says benefits of this plan include:• An operationally simpler mine plan• Higher gold production in earlier years• Stronger operational cash-flow• Potential for earlier debt repayment• Flotation plant is established at the commencement of the projectThe study will also envisage relocating the processing facility from Zoroastrian-adjacent, 17 km north to Aphrodite. The construction of a float circuit with the initial 2.1Mtpa processing facility build will see pre-production capex increase, mostly offset by delaying the road and rail re-alignment required prior to developing Excelsior.An updated study is expected from Bardoc end of August.Figure 1: Map of BDC’s Tenements and Resources. Source: BDCFinancial Advisers | Stockbroking & Research | Special Situations Financing | Page 3 Exploration potential remains for Bardoc, of the 3.1Moz Au in Resource only 1Moz is classified as a ReserveBest gains to be made are from underground extensions to Zoroastrian and AphroditeBardoc has defined two extensional target zones at Zoroastrian, with drilling recently commenced to test. The main Zoroastrian lode remains open at depthExploration Potential RemainsLast week Bardoc also commenced an exploration programme at Zoroastrian and released exploration drill results from North Kanowna Star. From a Resource base of 3.1Moz Au @ 1.8 g/t Au, Bardoc currently only has a declared Reserve estimate of 1.0Moz Au.Regional opportunities remain but, in our view, biggest near-term potential upside is in extensions to the underground projects. Both Aphrodite and Zoroastrian remain open at depth and have parallel lodes not currently in the mine plan. In the DFS, Zoroastrian is expected to produce ore for two and a half years, whilst Aphrodite is expected to be mined for just over four years. These underground projects are higher grade than the open pits, and within the current plan the project is mill-constrained for the duration of the life of mine. It follows that exploration success at these two underground projects will extend mine lives and provide higher margin ounces longer term.At Zoroastrian, Bardoc is targeting zones of shearing plus minor quartz veining within a fractionated dolerite host rock. Review of historical data has enabled Bardoc to identify two target zones adjacent the main Blueys lode and provide an exploration target for each.The northern target is a footwall zone to Blueys lode, the southern target is along strike to Blueys South lode, at its shallowest point the southern target is 30 metres below surface. Bardoc’s declared exploration target for each lode is 112koz to 168koz at a grade of 3.4g/t Au to 4.2 g/t Au. Note that these targets are conceptual in nature, and are not part of an existing Resource or Reserve estimate. Either of these exploration targets, if achieved, would account for a mine-life extension of ~2 years based on DFS production rates from Zoroastrian.Blueys South lode itself remains open at depth, drilling the depth extensions will be more economical once an underground mine has been established.Figure 2: Oblique view of Zoroastrian facing NW, Showing DFS pit designs, underground design, and known lodes. Source: BDCFinancial Advisers | Stockbroking & Research | Special Situations Financing | Page 4 We have updated our mining scenario to factor in proposed changes under review in Bardoc’s current studyOverall, after bringing forward construction of the flotation circuit and delaying road and rail realignmend, change to pre- production capex is negligibleOn our numbers the new mine plan means >160kozpa produced while both underground mines are in operation. Extending these mine lives will be key to back-fill later years of productionArgonaut’s Mining Scenario and ValuationArgonaut has developed a mining scenario as a basis for valuation. We have updated our mining scenario to factor in changes as outlined in Bardoc’s proposed Cash-Flow Optimisation Study. Aside from a few key changes the remainder of our assumptions remain unchanged.Key changes to our assumptions are:• Bring forward construction of Stage 2 of the flotation circuit to pre-productioncapex. Pre-Production processing facility capex increase of $26M, now $180M.• Bring forward Aphrodite open pit and underground production by two years,Aphrodite Underground development now comes online year 3.• Delay Excelsior production and road and rail re-alignment required for Excelsiordevelopment by two years. Reducing pre-production capex by $24.5M.• Haulage distances adjusted to factor in new processing facility location.Our total pre-production capex estimate now stands at $204.5M, up slightly on our prior estimate of $203M. LOM estimate of capital expenditure for plant improvements and equipment replacement remains $75M.Our estimate of funding requirements remains unchanged. A $132M debt facility and $88M equity raise at $0.07 subscription price have been used to fund pre-production capital in our model. This results in equity dilution in present value terms of $92M (inclusive of dilution from options).Adjusting the mine-plan has a significant impact on the production profile of the Bardoc Gold project. Having both the Zoroastrian and Aphrodite underground mines operating simultaneously results in >160kozpa Au for the one year both are being developed.Figure 3: Argonaut updated assumed production profile Source: ArgonautGold production drops off significantly at the conclusion of underground mining at Aphrodite. We expect that once underground access has been established, both the Zoroastrian and Aphrodite mine lives will increase. If achieved this will result in >150kozpaFinancial Advisers | Stockbroking & Research | Special Situations Financing | Page 5 gold production being comfortably achieved for as long as both mines are in operation. We assume Underground production of 4.8Mt @ 3.6 g/t Au for 556koz, and open pit production of 12.8Mt @ 1.4 g/t Au for 593koz. With 456koz sold as dore and 596koz sold as concentrate. We assume a nine-year mine life with first gold in the March quarter 2023.The remainder of our assumptions remain the same as our previous research. Including our assumption of 15% additional capital required on top of Bardoc’s DFS estimate to account for increased costs of labour and materials.For processing we assume a treatment cost of $18/t of ore, slightly higher than Bardoc’s estimated $15/t. We have also factored in associated costs of producing and shipping a concentrate from Aphrodite ore. Including these costs bring our estimated processing cost across LOM up to $21/t. We estimate gold recovery of 93% for CIL and 90% for flotation ore (recovery to concentrate * payability). Our CIL recovery is slightly conservative when compared to Bardoc’s estimates.Our estimated LOM AISC has reduced slightly to $1195/oz, previously $1230/oz. $1020/oz for underground ore and $1354 for open pit ore.Argonaut has used internal gold price estimates which average to US$1750 across the life of the project, and an AUD to USD currency conversion rate of $0.75.Using a 7% real after-tax discount rate we now value the Bardoc Gold Project at $257M, or $0.15 per share. Up from $209M or $0.12 per share.We have also assigned a nominal exploration valuation equal to 20% of the Bardoc Gold Project’s current valuation, or $77M. Bardoc has a large Resource base currently not included in the mine plan, and relatively short planned underground mine lives at Zoroastrian and Aphrodite. These short planned lives would be an anomaly in the Kalgoorlie region. We expect mine lives at both Zoroastrian and Aphrodite to be greater than those outlined in Bardoc’s DFS and will review our model as more information becomes available.As a sum of parts Argonaut values Bardoc at $236M, or $0.14 per share, up from $203M, or $0.12 per share. This valuation includes Argonaut’s mining scenario for the Bardoc project, plus a nominal exploration valuation, current cash and equivalents, and future tax benefit. Corporate overheads and equity dilution are also included.Table 1: Bardoc Valuation SummaryValuation summary A$M A$/shBardoc project 7% real after tax DR 257 0.15 Exploration 77 0.04 Corporate overheads -56 -0.03 Cash and bullion 13 0.01 Debt 0 0.00 Tax benefit 35 0.02 Hedging 0 0.00 Option/equity dilution -89 -0.05 NAV 236 0.14 The remainder of our assumptions remain in line with our previous research, including our assumption of 15% additional capital required on top of Bardoc’s DFS estimate to account for increased costs of labour and materialsWe value the Bardoc Gold Project at $257M, up from $209MAs a sum of parts we value Bardoc at $236M, or $0.14 per share Source: ArgonautFinancial Advisers | Stockbroking & Research | Special Situations Financing | Page 6 Key risks to ValuationArgonaut’s valuation of the Bardoc project is highly sensitive to gold price. A 10% reduction in USD gold price reduces the project NPV by 41%. In reality, a reduction in gold price this great would likely be buffered by a reduction in labour and equipment costs that would see both capex and opex decrease. Conversely, a 10% increase in USD gold price would see project NPV increase by 48%.For the current valuation Argonaut utilised a conservative CIL processing recovery factor of 93%. If Bardoc were able to achieve recoveries of 95% this would result in the project NPV increasing by 6%. We have assumed gold recovery into concentrate of 95%, reducing this to 93% decreases the project NPV by 5%.Argonaut has assumed total pre-production capital expenditure of $204.5M, inclusive of plant, flotation circuit and associated infrastructure construction, and other pre-mining capital. We have also assumed the road and rail realignment required to develop Excelsior to cost $24.5M and a further $75M of capex across LOM for plant replacement/improvement. Broadly this represents a 15% increase to Bardoc’s DFS assumptions, which we believe is appropriate due to the current labour and construction market in WA. If we assume capex figures in-line with Bardoc’s DFS our project NPV increases 25% to $331M.We have allocated a nominal exploration value to the project of 20% of the Bardoc projects NPV, or $77M. The combined potential of additional satellite deposits and expanded underground mining at Aphrodite and Zoroastrian are positives for Bardoc. We see risk to the upside here.To fund the pre-production capital expenditure Argonaut has assumed $220M in capital required, funded by a 40:60 equity raise to debt split. If Bardoc were able to secure a higher proportion of debt funding NAV would improve.SummaryBardoc has comitted to completing a Cash-Flow Optimisation Study with recently announced preferred EPC tenderers GR Engineering assisting. The updated study will see underground mine development of Aphrodite brought forward in the mine plan and earlier production of a gold concentrate. Bardoc says that this optimisation will maximise early mine cash flows. We have updated our model factoring in these adjustments and at a high level we agree with Bardoc’s assertion.Bringing forward underground Aphrodite development leaves a steep drop off in our assumed project ounce profile following FY28. Bardoc will look to back-fill this predominantly through discovery leading to extension of underground reserves, both through the addition of parallel lodes and extension of existing lodes into the mine plan.We will continue to review our model as the project progresses, near term expected news flow includes:• Completion of the Cash-Flow optimisation study by end of August.• Zoroastrian diamond drilling, currently underway, no timeline for results given.• Project financing announcement, expected this quarter.Financial Advisers | Stockbroking & Research | Special Situations Financing | Page 7 Information DisclosureEach research analyst of this material certifies that the views expressed in this research material accurately reflect the analyst's personal views about the subject securities and listed corporations. 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RESEARCH: Ian Christie | Head of Research+61 8 9224 6872 [email protected] Macdonald | Director, Metals & Mining Research +61 8 9224 6835 [email protected] Ross | Analyst, Metals & Mining Research +61 8 9224 6840 [email protected] Haese | Analyst, Metals & Mining Research +61 8 9224 6869 [email protected] Dorling | Associate Analyst+61 8 9224 6837 [email protected] SALES: Chris Wippl | Executive Director, Head of Institutional Sales +61 8 9224 6875 [email protected] Rooney | Director Institutional Sales +61 8 9224 6862 [email protected] Santul | Consultant, Sales & Research +61 8 9224 6859 [email protected] Welch | Institutional Dealer+61 8 9224 6868 [email protected] Ogilvie | Institutional Dealer+61 8 9224 6871 [email protected] AND PRIVATE CLIENT SALES: Glen Colgan | Managing Director, Desk Manager +61 8 9224 6874 [email protected] Johnson | Executive Director, Corporate Stockbroking +61 8 9224 6880 [email protected] McGlew | Executive Director, Corporate Stockbroking +61 8 9224 6866 [email protected] Barnesby-Johnson | Senior Dealer, Corporate Stockbroking +61 8 9224 6854 [email protected] Willoughby | Senior Dealer, Corporate Stockbroking +61 8 9224 6876 [email protected] Grant | Senior Dealer, Corporate Stockbroking +61 8 9224 6834, [email protected] Keogh | Senior Dealer, Corporate Stockbroking +61 8 9224 6852, [email protected] Healy | Dealer, Private Clients+61 8 9224 6873, [email protected] Prunster |Dealer, Private Clients +61 8 9224 6853 [email protected] Massey |Dealer, Private Clients +61 8 9224 6849 [email protected] Massey | Dealer, Private Clients+61 8 9224 6829, [email protected] O’Connell | Provisional Financial Advisor, Private Clients +61 8 9224 6851, [email protected] Meyers | Provisional Financial Advisor, Private Clients +61 8 9224 6879, [email protected] Advisers | Stockbroking & Research | Special Situations Financing | Page 8
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