There is a lot in the commentary on the investor call that should help drive uplift in valuations:
- Growth projects to take production from 19PJ to 54PJ are defined, with capex in line with pre-existing economics
- Remaining growth to end of FY25 of +6PJ to 60PJ have a range of sources: a) debottlenecking via electrification to free up reserves, b) appraisal of the 3P resources; c) reserves from deals with adjacent third party acreage d) Artemis and Bowen. In summary, that's a lot of optionality so collectively, I'd expect analysts to de-risk this growth
- Economies of scale in incremental expansions, particularly tolls through 3rd party compression as fixed costs are sunk and paid for
- General good cost control in operations, e.g., sustaining capex
- Improving confidence on subsurfaces "our models are generally conservative" which we see in "lower capital and operating cost"
- Tightness of the East Coast gas market, particularly from FY23 out, there SXY has a large unconstracted exposure (e.g. opportunity)
- Laser focus on FCF generation and dividend growth.... "a low risk investor proposition for our large retail shareholder base"
I expect decent valuation model updates over the next few days, which will drive SP.
Ian Davies: "We've got the runs on the board, and we're putting more runs on the board."
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