It's frustrating. I understand why some people have had enough too.
One thing I would say is that it is always worth calling KIN and asking them questions directly. I have done that a few times and found them as open as they are allowed to be in discussing matters.
As for the current situation, I can see plusses and minuses.
As a negative (and a pretty big one) - the share price has been really disappointing and it is falling again today. Plus there's the broader question of the incentives for our new shareholder in working with KIN to reverse that. If SBM really wants KIN's ground, how is KIN going to drive up the price and make them bid a premium? I noticed the references to discussions with other parties (presumably Red 5 and DCN) but SBM is going to get the first call on what happens next in a production deal.
The Harmanis sale was disappointing as well in seeing a massive chunk of shares being sold off-market, when even a portion of the same sale on-market would have buoyed the share price substantially. We drop 5-10% in price on trivial numbers of shares traded on other days but the remaining shareholders basically got no real bump out of more than a quarter of the register changing hands to a motivated buyer.
Against that I would argue that sentiment for junior explorers is poor in general (whether KIN bears some blame for still being in the junior explorer category after such a lengthy period is open to question). And more positively, a major gold producer like SBM is clearly interested enough in what KIN has to take a big position, which surely can't be seen as a negative, as long as we don't get sold too cheaply as a result.
For triggers for share price growth, KIN has the MRE update, which must be imminent. It also has the exploration results from Eagle-Crow, within a month or so, as well as the latest set of results from Mount Flora, maybe a few weeks later.
I have no real idea of how many more ounces might be added in the resource update - perhaps 100,000 would be a good result - but maybe Mount Flora is the better chance of jolting the share price upwards, especially if the near-surface finds from the previous drilling can be replicated more widely.
So we have three rolls of the dice to get things moving upwards again in the next few weeks.
My own base case on valuation for year-end now is 1.3m ounces x $90 an ounce (roughly what SBM paid for the Harmanis shares) for an enterprise value of $117m. The share price is falling again this morning but I reckon the current EV is in the mid-$80m range, so there is upside from here.
All the same, the decline from the 16 cents paid for the Harmanis stake is very frustrating and it puts the onus on KIN to make clear on how/where it could be looking to collaborate with SBM in the months ahead. This was mentioned in the chairman's address and KIN told me that proposals have been sent to SBM. I don't have a sense of the timeline on this but they will need to get to an announced plan before they shake the tin for another capital raising towards the end of the year.
Patience is a virtue, although it is becoming an expensive one with KIN too...
KIN Price at posting:
11.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
