Okay, I'll start then.. well market initially was down 2%, and already pulled back some of those losses and now at about -1.3%. But, let's put that in perspective. TWE coming in today was 62% above it's 52 week low, trading at 52 week highs. Market was expecting exhuberence. Citi's forecast is rediculous, but others were more moderate. And to be honest, TWE met most people's moderate expectations with their reporting being 'positively flat'.
My three takeaways from the annual report:
- Penfolds is not dead. How great to see Penfolds contributing 77% to net sales revenues, and increasing the NSR per case to $352. EBITS margins at 44% without China, not bad folks!
- The king is dead, long live the king. Even without the huge EBITS and growth that China provided, the company continues to find alternative avenues. Rest of Asia doing well (any chance these are daigous transporting things to mainland? Hmm), and really impressed with the US. They are taking the brands up market in the US, expanding their distribution, and have a long runway there. While it may not fully show up in the numbers in FY21, no doubt the rebound will be quite substantial when the distribution channels / covid situation improves. P.s. 19 Crimes is terrible, what are the yanks sniffing to want to buy that swill?
- Plenty of scope for improved earnings. At the valuations many of us probably bought at, we don't need earnings to go back to FY19 levels to make a good buck. But, we do need some earnings growth. Outlook is perhaps uncertain as Covid headwinds exacerbate the China trade issues, but as distribution channells open up I expect higher volumes and EBIT margins.
Steady as she goes.
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Price($) | Vol. | No. |
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