The chart crime is impressive... gotta fiddle with those Excel y-axis minimum bounds to make the report look good, then maybe should look twice in the details of the report.
The stat earnings are inflated from one-off costs in FY20 that deflated the earnings. What is reported as a 31% NPAT improvement is really on an underlying improvement in the business of 2.1% NPAT. I think CWY was open about this in their presentation/report.
Long term the business still looks solid. Just two concerns in the short term: first, margins are being squeezed and not sure if this is Covid related or otherwise - they reckon some of their solid waste fees will go up in FY22-23, but it's pretty marginal and not consistent across all jurisdictions. Second, the valuation is a stretch: 6.7% FCF yield, PE = 35 on underlying earnings, EV/EBITDA=11.3.. it's definitely not cheap.
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- Ann: FY21 Full Year Results Presentation
Ann: FY21 Full Year Results Presentation, page-3
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