GRR

2.74%

37.5¢ grange resources limited.

GRR Valuation, page-433

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BunnyCom

14 Posts.

23/08/21

10:40

Post #: 55491627

Originally posted by Nietoperz88: ↑
Given the recent hammering of the iron ore price, i took the time to play with some figures..

This is what has always attracted me to Grange.. The product they sell falls by 40% in value and the metrics still look excellent..

The below are just my back of the envelope calculations, these may be incorrect and are just for a bit of fun. None of my posts are advice and should not be considered that, as always do your own research or speak to a professional (i am definitely not one!)

That aside, the below is what i come up with... again as we know alot of variables in there like AUD, Fe Price and Production costs however a snap shot at this point in time give me the confirmation bias i am looking for . Hopefully these numbers can be critiqued once we get the actual audited accounts and details later this week!

ASX GRR
1 Shares on Issue 1,157,338,698.00
2 Current Net Position 30/06 $499,000,000.00
3 Tax estimate deduction on available cash from earnings during FY $100,000,000.00
4 Cash / Receivablesvalue per share $0.34
5 Debt 0
6 Share Price 0.63
7 Market Cap 729,123,379.74
8 Assumed production costs (AUD) $100.00
9 Life of Mine/Production asset (years) 10+
10 Seaborne index 65% Fe fines 157.8
11 Pellet Premium USD 46.2
12 AUD 0.71
13 AUD Pellet Price $222.60
14 Earnings per tonne $122.60
15 Likely annual production rates 2,500,000.00
16 Assumed EBIT $306,491,584.85
17 Tax of 30% $91,947,475.46
18 Earnings after 30% tax reduction $214,544,109.40
19 Earnings per share 0.19
20 Assumed PE ratio of 5 $0.93
21 Assumed PE ratio of 5 + cash at 30/06 $1.27
22 Assumed PE ratio of 10 (life or project) + cash $2.20
23

24 40% discounton PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc) $0.87
25

26 20% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc) $1.07
27

28 10% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc) $1.17

Take care all.
Expand
Hi Nietoperz,

Thanks for the analysis, I think the AUD Pellet price you used is miscalculated. I think you went

Seaborne index 65% Fe fines + (Pellet Premium USD/AUD)

instead of

(Seaborne index 65% Fe fines + Pellet Premium USD)/AUD

I.e. EV is even more of a joke

Cheers

GRR Price at posting: 62.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held

Upvote

0 Great analysis

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Last 37.5¢		Change 0.010(2.74%)		Mkt cap ! $434.0M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
37.0¢	38.0¢	36.8¢	$355.7K	952.7K

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No.	Vol.	Price($)
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0.385	104805	9
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GRR Valuation, page-433

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	ASX GRR
1	Shares on Issue	1,157,338,698.00
2	Current Net Position 30/06	$499,000,000.00
3	Tax estimate deduction on available cash from earnings during FY	$100,000,000.00
4	Cash / Receivablesvalue per share	$0.34
5	Debt	0
6	Share Price	0.63
7	Market Cap	729,123,379.74
8	Assumed production costs (AUD)	$100.00
9	Life of Mine/Production asset (years)	10+
10	Seaborne index 65% Fe fines	157.8
11	Pellet Premium USD	46.2
12	AUD	0.71
13	AUD Pellet Price	$222.60
14	Earnings per tonne	$122.60
15	Likely annual production rates	2,500,000.00
16	Assumed EBIT	$306,491,584.85
17	Tax of 30%	$91,947,475.46
18	Earnings after 30% tax reduction	$214,544,109.40
19	Earnings per share	0.19
20	Assumed PE ratio of 5	$0.93
21	Assumed PE ratio of 5 + cash at 30/06	$1.27
22	Assumed PE ratio of 10 (life or project) + cash	$2.20
23
24	40% discounton PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc)	$0.87
25
26	20% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc)	$1.07
27
28	10% discount on PE of 5 + cash (Iron ore price, production cost uncertainty etc)	$1.17

GRR Valuation, page-433

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SKS Technologies wins US$90M award to supply power to international hyperscale data centre in Melbourne

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