I did this comparison early last month when I was considering investing in PDY & AGU, therefore some of the figures are slightly out. I have picked up a reasonable amount of AGU. At the time of my comparison AGU & PDY were both at 3c.
Right now AGU SP is 2.2 and PDY is 3.2. The comparison does not take into effect the latest dilution of AGU.
Appreciate feedback:
AGU $2.9 mill in bank after last quarter. $550,000 committed to PDY for drilling up until 31/12/2009 120,000,000 options @ 20c expiry on 31/05/2010 150,000,000 FPO's on issue, since then they have given PDY 35,000,000 shares. Therefore 185,000,000.
Current market cap $5,550,000 (cash backing to $2,900,000) = $2,650,000 in value of projects
PDY $1.2 mill in bank after last quarter. 714,000,000 options @ 1c expiry on 30/06/2012 1,150,000,000 shares on issue 35,000,000 AGU shares = 35,000,000 x 0.03 = $1,050,000 40,000,000 YRR shares = 40,000,000 x 0.06 = $2,400,000 massive dilution potential, if people start exercising options at 0.01
Current market cap $35,650,000 (cash backing to $1,200,000 + AGU shares value $1,050,000 + YRR $2,400,000) = $31,000,000 in value of projects
Therefore PDY's projects are currently valued at 11.7 times the value of AGU's
If they both only had one project (the JV project) which they dont, but that is the one project creating value ATM, AGU should be worth (using PDY's market cap as a baseline):
$31,000,000/70% = $44,285,714 (total project value) x 30% = $13,285,714
$13,285,714 + cash backing ($2,900,000) = $16,185,714 or 8.7 cents per share.
AGU Price at posting:
2.2¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
