RECAP ON TNG - INVESTORS TAKE NOTE
1. Attractive Project Revenue Numbers
If Mount Peake was in full production today my indicative calculations suggest it would be generating $859,281,655 per year in revenue X 37 years = $31,293,421,230. These numbers are now in line and higher than the DFS forecast, which is a positive outcome when it comes to financing, cash generation and shareholder return.
I recall that the sensitivity to commodities prices means that Mount Peake, over the last 50 years, would have produced free cash flow and delivered a profit - no matter what the prices were. This is because with the TIVAN technology TNG will be the lowest cost producer on the planet.
For those playing at home, this would mean that TNG would have an "economic moat" with cost of production being a key advantage and differentiator.
My instinct suggests we are closer than people believe we are. I feel that once the company clarifies that they have made a decision around the location of the refinery, the pathway to production will be known and the producer "re-rate" well on the cards. The conceptual project funding model would suggest hundreds and hundreds of millions are about to come through the door and we are trading at bargain discount prices.
Doing a sheer peer comparison, we have many things in place that other companies don’t have - and they are 5 times the current market cap of TNG. When you assess the project variables and re-cut the project modelling, on an indicative basis I'm of the view the project NPV catapults to circa $4.9bn plus.
2. Key Tier 1 Project Partners
To re-state once the company clarify’ s that they have made a decision around the location of the refinery - the pathway to production will be known.
- KFW - (key cornerstone debt financier) on board for US$600m
- GOVERNMENT DEBT (NAIF) - low cost Australian debt and on board, with members of the NAIF Board, liking a number of TNG posts on LinkedIn recently.
- DKSH - (the Titanium group who will buy TNG’s Titanium and could in part also become a Delivery Partner, and possibly provide some equity into the project) (The DKSH bloke out of Sydney likes TNG’s posts on LinkedIn)
- KPMG - the group appointed by TNG to help TNG’s CFO, piece all the financing together, are on board and collectively working with Jonathan Fisher to line everything up.
- SMS Group - the 200 year old German Engineering firm is on board and want to build the refinery - and will provide the promised product and process guarantees
- COMMONWEALTH GOVERNMENT'S Major Project Status - The Feds wouldn’t put their name to a project unless they could see the pathway ahead was achievable and can be delivered.
- To complement the debt package, potential for an equity partner to be announced and money starts to flow into the project development phase before the EIS for the refinery is finalised and set in stone. To that end, KFW are there as mentioned and they have been attached to TNG for a number of years which is a huge positive.
- We should be celebrating and feel confident that Peake is going ahead. It will start to run as there is a huge disconnect between the TNG market cap and the project financials that this goliath will deliver.
3. TNG has a "tip top" CFO
We have a CFO in Jonathan Fisher who has financed large projects like this one before. He has come on board because he can see this all falling into place and wants to be a part of the journey in front of us.
How much easier is it to finance Mt Peake than Windamurra? He organised and executed the project financing for $700 million for Windamurra which would produce just 7,600 tonnes of Vanadium. Mount Peake will produce 6,000 tonnes of Vanadium, 100,000 tonnes of Titanium and 500,000 tonnes of Iron Ore.
Fisher has the help of KPMG, KFW and NAIF to get the financing right - and I believe will do so, with a heap of debt, which is a huge positive for shareholder value.
The reason TNG and SMS are working hard on the FEED Project Execution model is so that it is done properly, upfront and once only.
As SMS have said to me directly at an AGM years ago, it is almost impossible to change anything in the process once the project infrastructure is in place.
4. Clean up the Sell Side
The only reason you would want to sell stock now is that you need it for something - otherwise why sell now as the company is painfully close to finalising Project Execution plans?
Also can I please ask that we try and clean up the TNG spread because it’s a mess.
If you cant wait 3/6 months for a much higher price so be it. But if you are one of these people with a sell order in the screen at $1.18 or 18.5c can you please take it out. Any sell orders higher than 14 cents, which is 50% higher than todays price, is just clogging up the screen and makes the TNG spread look rubbish.
If you want to sell, don’t put your orders in the screen, just nicely and politely put your order in, when it hits your sell point.
I believe when the price and volume starts to pick up, TNG will run hard because there are so many holders that will hold tight and the stock will become hard to accumulate.
I have a strong conviction that we see 20/40c in the short term as things fall into place. In my opinion, this should be the last time we see trading in TNG below 10c.
