Daz
if you check the last Rio result .. you will see they acknowledge demand for Boric Acid (which is just the base that Abr will sell ) demand is increasing and yet their supply is down 4%) they have problems with supply . By the way boric acid market is growing at 10-12% a year ..in full production ABR is 1 year supply not sure where they are going to crush the price if in full production .(previous posts )
Further to that the boric acid price is now $850 usd vs 750 3 months ago .
Just curious on who you think is bringing new supply into the mkt ? Rio Jadar 2029, INR ? Are they fully permitted ?(already pushed out production estimates by a year ) so at best 2025..
On that topic ..which company is actually permitted to bring new supply on globally ?
Has been no delay to full production ,if anything today is trying to say it will be brought forward .
Lots of talk about why Drill further ..? You drill to expand mine life and to better head grade assumptions . Previous announcements 3.7% ..image if you double that if not triple it ..what does that mean extension of mine life and you use less water .
Turkish Government ? Can’t keep up with demand .(if they were flooding the mkt price would not be moving up )
US listing ..yes they will list in US and assume they will raise money at some stage in 2022 ..to put something in construction/production at conservative 400m ebitda profile 2026/2027 .. so what multiple would you like to put that on . ? Rio trades 6 x ,albermale trades 30times .
So you are right dilution will occur ..but you dilute to grow . Put 400m ebitda on a 6 times multiple ..500m Mkt cap looks very cheap .
What makes a mkt ..buyers /sellers . Happy that you voice your opinion that this is over valued .. hence you are a seller ..but given every time they announce you post something negative so assume you must have a lot of stock to sell .
As a long term shareholder daily price movements frustrate ,but if you believe in the thematic long term ..current mkt noise will be irrelevant.
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