"Hawsons" a green steel devolper in making, page-71

Do you think China can have sufficient supply outside of Australia to meet its demand? Have you looked at the demand and supply outlook?
China consumes over 2 bil tons of IO a year. The demand is forecasted to increase to 2.6 bil tons by 2026. Currently 60% is imported from Australia, 20% from Brazil and the rest from domestic production. Brazil can supply roughly 400 mil tons and if pushed really hard, an additional 100 mil tons. The other hope for China is West Africa particularly Simandou project in Guinea. This project is still going to cost additional 20 bil tons and 750 km rail line to be built. there is already conflict between government and the project developers (Rio Tinto and Chinalco) in regards to which way the rail line should be built. There are a lot of conflict and corruption in Africa so it is not easy to set up mine. They have been trying for last 2 decades with no success. Even if this project comes online in 2026 (I highly doubt it will by 2026) with additional $20 bil in infrastructure, it can only supply 100 -150 mil tons max. So where will the rest of the Io come from?

Here is the demand and supply landscapes:

Demand 2.6 bil ton by 2026
Supply -
Brazil - 500 mil ton max
Africa - 100 mil ton
Domestic production - 400 mil tons

Supply shortfall - 1.6 bil tons.

Other producers - 200 mil assumption

Shortfall without Australian supply - 1.4 bil.

The IO majors have been very disciplined in investing in new mines or expansion due the the lesson learnt from over supply situation in 2015. So there is no additional significant supply coming in. Imagine IO price without Australian supply.

China is not doing us any favor by buying our Ore. If they had choice, they would have done decades ago. What they re currently doing is simply fearmongering to bring the price down. They have been successful in the short term but current price is still too high relative to the long term average. The average price over the last 10 years is ~$100/ton. Without significant supply in the pipeline, not way it will drop and stay below $100 for a sustainable period of time. So there is no weight in China saying they will stop importing from Australia. Yes, it does create havoc in the market and price swings wildly. But in the medium/long term, price has to be set itself based on demand and supply.