HIO

4.35%

2.4¢ hawsons iron ltd

"Hawsons" a green steel devolper in making, page-72

First 72 Last

Share
Profile

Follow
Mas37

1,251 Posts.

377

25/08/21

22:40

Post #: 55574864
Share

Originally posted by Realinvestor1: ↑

Do you think China can have sufficient supply outside of Australia to meet its demand? Have you looked at the demand and supply outlook?
China consumes over 2 bil tons of IO a year. The demand is forecasted to increase to 2.6 bil tons by 2026. Currently 60% is imported from Australia, 20% from Brazil and the rest from domestic production. Brazil can supply roughly 400 mil tons and if pushed really hard, an additional 100 mil tons. The other hope for China is West Africa particularly Simandou project in Guinea. This project is still going to cost additional 20 bil tons and 750 km rail line to be built. there is already conflict between government and the project developers (Rio Tinto and Chinalco) in regards to which way the rail line should be built. There are a lot of conflict and corruption in Africa so it is not easy to set up mine. They have been trying for last 2 decades with no success. Even if this project comes online in 2026 (I highly doubt it will by 2026) with additional $20 bil in infrastructure, it can only supply 100 -150 mil tons max. So where will the rest of the Io come from?

Here is the demand and supply landscapes:

Demand 2.6 bil ton by 2026
Supply -
Brazil - 500 mil ton max
Africa - 100 mil ton
Domestic production - 400 mil tons

Supply shortfall - 1.6 bil tons.

Other producers - 200 mil assumption

Shortfall without Australian supply - 1.4 bil.

The IO majors have been very disciplined in investing in new mines or expansion due the the lesson learnt from over supply situation in 2015. So there is no additional significant supply coming in. Imagine IO price without Australian supply.

China is not doing us any favor by buying our Ore. If they had choice, they would have done decades ago. What they re currently doing is simply fearmongering to bring the price down. They have been successful in the short term but current price is still too high relative to the long term average. The average price over the last 10 years is ~$100/ton. Without significant supply in the pipeline, not way it will drop and stay below $100 for a sustainable period of time. So there is no weight in China saying they will stop importing from Australia. Yes, it does create havoc in the market and price swings wildly. But in the medium/long term, price has to be set itself based on demand and supply.

Expand

very well said !!

HIO Price at posting: 9.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
5 Upvote

0 Great analysis

Reply

Top Stories

TIG

Tigers Realm's US$49M sale of Russian assets – to a Kremlin-adjacent billionaire – set to go ahead

SHN

Sunshine Metals kicks off copper gold drilling at Truncheon; Highway East targets

RAG

Ragnar impressed by 11.55 metre pegmatite in Sweden, anticipating further mineralisation

IMA

Issues emerging as Australian companies tackle critical minerals challenge

A3D

Defence MOU for propulsion systems pushes Aurora Lab shares higher

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to open flattish after Wall Street weakens on hot US inflation data | October 11, 2024

MKT

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

CXU

Cauldron Energy reports "excellent" uranium assays in latest drill run

NWH

NRW Holdings inks $109M deal with BHP for works at Jimblebar

Week 41 Wrap: HotCopper asks “Back to Mongolia?” for Elixir; US CPI comes in at 2.4%; eyes still on China

There are more pages in this discussion • 443 more messages in this thread...

First 72 Last

Add HIO (ASX) to my watchlist

(20min delay)
Last 2.4¢		Change 0.001(4.35%)		Mkt cap ! $24.39M

Open	High	Low	Value	Volume
2.2¢	2.4¢	2.2¢	$5.843K	247.3K

Buyers (Bids)

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	21740	2.3¢

Sellers (Offers)

Price($)	Vol.	No.
2.6¢	185000	2

View Market Depth

No.	Vol.	Price($)
1	21740	0.023
2	75363	0.022
10	792563	0.021
12	3652186	0.020
7	2631683	0.019

Price($)	Vol.	No.
0.026	35000	1
0.027	691826	1
0.028	746290	3
0.029	456257	3
0.030	261358	2

Last trade - 15.05pm 11/10/2024 (20 minute delay)

HIO (ASX) Chart

"Hawsons" a green steel devolper in making, page-72

Tigers Realm's US$49M sale of Russian assets – to a Kremlin-adjacent billionaire – set to go ahead

Sunshine Metals kicks off copper gold drilling at Truncheon; Highway East targets

Ragnar impressed by 11.55 metre pegmatite in Sweden, anticipating further mineralisation

Issues emerging as Australian companies tackle critical minerals challenge

Defence MOU for propulsion systems pushes Aurora Lab shares higher

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to open flattish after Wall Street weakens on hot US inflation data | October 11, 2024

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Cauldron Energy reports "excellent" uranium assays in latest drill run

NRW Holdings inks $109M deal with BHP for works at Jimblebar

Week 41 Wrap: HotCopper asks “Back to Mongolia?” for Elixir; US CPI comes in at 2.4%; eyes still on China

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News

"Hawsons" a green steel devolper in making, page-72

Top Stories

Tigers Realm's US$49M sale of Russian assets – to a Kremlin-adjacent billionaire – set to go ahead

Sunshine Metals kicks off copper gold drilling at Truncheon; Highway East targets

Ragnar impressed by 11.55 metre pegmatite in Sweden, anticipating further mineralisation

Issues emerging as Australian companies tackle critical minerals challenge

Defence MOU for propulsion systems pushes Aurora Lab shares higher

ASX Market Open: ASX200 to open flattish after Wall Street weakens on hot US inflation data | October 11, 2024

The ASX can overlook its Telecomm small-caps. Here’s one diversified brand with an international footprint

Cauldron Energy reports "excellent" uranium assays in latest drill run

NRW Holdings inks $109M deal with BHP for works at Jimblebar

Week 41 Wrap: HotCopper asks “Back to Mongolia?” for Elixir; US CPI comes in at 2.4%; eyes still on China

Featured News

Buyers (Bids)

Sellers (Offers)

Featured News