A4N 0.93% $1.09 alpha hpa limited

A4N product and grade summary, page-68

  1. 761 Posts.
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    I am sorry, but technically A4N do have an binding offtake agreement... However, I know you mean for HPA so that is a bit tongue and cheek.

    Realistically offtakes are not expected at this stage, A4N have only just signed supply agreements for non-commodity inputs. I guess I don't really undertand the argument, A4N also don't have funding agreements and are yet to make an FID on the full plant, however these are all project de-risking events which occur as the project and marketing progresses. On the flip side of this, the MC is a fraction of the potential value of full production so clearly reflects some risk. Whether there is enough risk adjustment in the MC and SP, that has to be a personal assessment, however to assert the project is worthless because it doesn't have offtakes seems to lack a fundamental understanding of capital investment to me.

    If the comment refers to the PPF, my comments above regarding risk stand. Although, in honesty, I am not sure whether PPF offtakes are planned, it seems A4N may rely on the distribution network they have built. This would seem to be a reasonable strategy as it brings forward production by skipping the offtakes milestone and provides flexibility to secure the best price and look after the most important customers. This strategy is also supported by the fact that construction is funded from equity, is of a relatively low volume, is in speciality products and is designed to support marketing as much as deliver commercial cash flows.

    For my fellow holders who may argue that some comments should be ignored, I think a counter argument on record will assist others who may take all posts at face value.

    All IMO, please DYOR and GLTAH.
 
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