Exactly, I am not sure what all the fuss is about. We have had multiple downgrades factoring in the deterioration in FY21 result in stages so nothing much new there. People commenting on how bad the FY21 results are a bit behind the eight ball in my view, as that information was available to them in May and has not changed since then.
I said a few times previously the market would not care about FY21 results and only focus on FY22 outlook. The language here is pessimistic in the short-term but I would say also realistic, compared to what they forecast this time last year. The market abhors uncertainty and so it will pay a price short term, but I'm a bit more confident we are not staring down the barrel of more downgrades in outlook. Under promise and over deliver is a better approach than what they've done.
I should also note that the language indicates slight/modest growth in FY22 earnings.
USA market is the main disappointment to me in FY21, not so much because of the impact on revenue but more because of lost potential/opportunity. Blake Waltrip has to go and I expect to see it announced soon.
New CEO deserves some early credit IMO for dumping Peter Nathan, canning his sponsor-a-daigou program, and seemingly turning the inventory issues around. He bit the bullet, took action on the inventory issue, and met guidance for a change.
I said yesterday they wouldn't do a buyback and that I hoped they would instead back themselves to invest in growth. So I am glad that panned out but obviously the jury is out until Investor Strategy Day in October. To me a lot hinges on that - the company itself has put a lot of emphasis on it - so hopefully they are clearing the decks for some more innovative thinking on new products, markets, etc.
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