If China was to stop importing iron ore from Australia, world's IO prices would increase 3-4 fold as exactly what has happened to thermal coal and coking coal prices after China banned importing Australian coals. It helped sucking up all available sources of coal from Mongolia, Russia, and domestic coal production within China. The result was coal prices in China have increased so much and China also suffer more pollution from these low quality and high cost coal production from these 3 sources.
Thermal coal went from low of $48/ton last year to current $196/ton after China's ban on Australian coal. Coking coal also enjoyed similar price increases. The funny thing is Australia has been able to rip the benefit of much much higher coal prices while also increased our total coal export volume through other markets.
A scenario of IO prices increase 3-4 fold to USD $500-$600/ton for Fe62% would be devastating to China's economy and indeed world's economy. So, forget about the idea of China abandoning Australia's iron ore. It won't make any economic sense.
Without Australia's super efficient IO production and rich IO resource, China and the world would have not benefited so much from low IO prices for so long. It would not be $150/ton today, it would be above $500/ton.
HIO Price at posting:
9.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
