Keiser, I really appreciate your contributions, it's good to hear more level-headed peer analysis rather than the more common (and emotionally comfortable) approach of cherry picking a case study and basing our prediction on MNS solely on it.
Thanks for bringing Freyr and Microvast into our attention; I've had a look at their business and plans. They do appear to be similar to IM3 in ambition and timeframe, though I will point out that there are several differences that should be considered that puts IM3 in a far better position from a post US-listing market capitalisation perspective.
FREYR Battery
FREYR is planning to produce batteries with cobalt, which already put them behind Magnis in terms of 'green credentials'. They may be penalised or miss incentives/subsidies for low toxicity cell chemistries that is expected to come out of the Biden administration.
AFAIK they have not produced any 'commercial grade' batteries from any of their facilities yet, which Im3 has already achieved earlier this year on site at Endicott. In fact they are still purchasing equipment (https://news.cision.com/freyr/r/freyr-issues-invitations-to-tender-for-the-purchase-of-battery-cell-production-equipment-for-pilot-p,c3308708), something IM3 completed years ago at garage sale prices.
FREYR doesn't appear to have a factory location secured yet in USA. Based on their last update they are still negotiating. This means a US location is at least 3 years away from at-scale operations based on their pace with the Norway factory.
Microvast
Their batteries does look competitive with C4V's cell chemistries, so all good on that front.
Share price used to calculate the EBIDTA premium for market cap estimation may be lowered with Microvast due to the deep China connection its founder has. There has been a massive stock crash for any chinese tech companies listed on US markets that are dependent on the Chinese consumer/government market. MVST did have a good share price at $18-20 before falling to the current $9 (almost 50% drop) after the CCP policy changes on foreign-listed chinese firms. I always consider the geopolitics of a company beyond TA/FA when calibrating the 'average' valuation for companies in emerging sectors.
Fun fact: if IM3NY directly lists on Nasdaq they do not issue any new shares (no SP dilution!)
I haven't read into any plans on how they plan to list, but it is possible they do a direct listing on the NYSE or NASDAQ without having to issue new shares. In other words this is not an IPO (https://www.nasdaq.com/solutions/direct-listings, which would be the best outcome for existing shareholders.
Since the factory is fully funded till they reach 1.8GWh capacity, which will take till Q2 next year to complete and by which time they will begin making and delivering cells, their almost $1B AUD in binding offtake should reduce the need to capital raise any further. The exception to this is any capital/operating cost surprises, or if the board decides to get more ambitious on accelerating their growth/expansion plans and hire/acquire aggressively before they complete current orders.
Due to all of this, I uphold my own expectation of the MNS valued at around $1.5 after US listing, $2-3 for when the first 1.8GWh operational capacity is realised.
I am very grateful for a healthy discourse and better collective research and information/thought sharing especially as this sector will only continue to heat up and more competitors join the ring. Far better than the bitter battles of accusations on price manipulation/downramping in some other threads on this forum.
(20min delay)