Estimated USA applicable patient population and total revenue for Zantrene. Current evidence suggests Bisantrene is applicable to 10-15% of metastatic cancers. Patient population estimated by finding the percentage of cancer deaths that were the result of metastatic cancers (66.7%) - the true number of patients may be more or less. Revenue was estimated by multiplying the estimated patient population by Keytrudas total revenue per patient. Note: this is only for US population.
Most oncology buyouts are peak revenue multiplied by 5. I have included 1-5x peak revnue scenarios devided by estimated total shares on issue because I was curious.
Take these numbers however you like. They are insanely large, but that's what happens when you have a first-in-class and best-in-class drug that addresses 25 different cancer types. I am not posting these numbers because I believe a buyout of this magnitude will happen, rather to try showcase how Zantrene might be valued by one of more biopharmaceutical company and what those values might look like. A highly effective precision oncology drug, oustanding clinical maturity, fast route to market and revenues, and bidding war are key factors for driving a buyout of this magnitude.
For those new to RAC, a key factor worthy of consideration is that there are currently no FTO inhibitors in the market, which means that the first drug to market will have the best opportunity to take advantage of this revenue potential. Also, Zantrene is far more clinically advanced than other competitors, meaning that it will have greater opportunity to secure a larger portion of this market. We know from the Keytruda story that developing the companion diagnostic was fundamental to slingshotting it in front of BMS's PD1 inhibitor - gee, I wonder if the other FTO inhibitors in preclinical stages have companion diagnostics in development at the moment.
Open to criticism on my approach.
Limitations: - Assuming Zantrene pricing is similar to Keytruda - Estimations on applicable patient population (either over- or under-estimated) - Limited knowledge of in-house valuation methods by big pharma
RAC Price at posting:
$3.06 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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