amateur analysis

Like many among you, I sat and watched the day unfold right from the start. What I want to discuss here is about the way things went in hopes of sparking further comment .

It all started like a WW2 movie, with a placid Pacific and a sunrise over the water. Not much trading. Clear skies.

The report came out. Time went by, since it is so bloody long that even an Evelyn Wood trained speed reader would have developed blisters on their pointing finger while attempting to get through it.

Then came the action. As I predicted and expected, there was selling. Always happens: “Buy on rumour, sell on fact.” OK...so the facts arrived. The sellers were, imho, people who had bought in the single cents range and who saw that this was not going to go off like the Space Shuttle (no wisecracks about Challenger now, OK?) . Substantial profit to take, so they took it.

Those sellers rattled a few others, and it’s possible that some instos decided that there were greener pastures to graze today, thinking, ‘This one is not going up today, so we'll just watch it and revisit this in a little while’ (like next week or next month.) The sp sank to the point where nerves were tested, but it never fell through the .10 mark. A few shaky knees in the Eastern States were heard even on the west coast of our fair island. I know that clattering, as I've generated some myself over the years.

Well, when stability was established not an hour later, the savvy pounced and scooped up the .105, .11, and .115 shares in short order. There was even a push higher, but VPG got becalmed as it lost momentum. Now here comes my thinking, and I appreciate your telling me if I'm a few flapjacks short of a full stack...

All the 100 million shares that were bought today (yes people, for a trade to occur, someone has to buy as well as sell...) were bought at levels predominantly at or below the 12 cent mark, where we closed. Those traders have not bought in hopes of losing money. :-) The fundamental truths of the day include facts such as:
•Real estate valuations are on the rise here and in the U.K. and in Europe.
•The recession has bottomed out (though there could be another dip or two in the near term.) •Finance is more available now then it has been and lenders are more amenable to risk, so foreclosure and other nightmares are receding as possibilities.
•More deals are being worked out in the background, and those could not have been mentioned in the report or accounted for yet.
•It was an unpleasant day on the world markets, and many folks were heading for the exits. •There is no direct link between NTAs and the sp, as evidenced by other company's situations - therefore, that's far less of a gauge than is market sentiment.
•Finally, the market determined the value of the share today. Did the report disappoint? Not really. Was it better than expected? Nope.

The bottom line: What today's voluminous report was was a HISTIORY lesson. It cannot be thought of as a forecasting tool. It only described how we got here, not where we are going. Did any one of you think that is was going to say,

"Dear Shareholders,
We had one ripper-doozy of a year....yeeee haaaaw!"?

So now it's only another 90 days until a quarterly report, or 180 days until the next half-yearly. (That's a joke, OK?) We're now free of expectations. Market conditions, anns regarding asset sales or acquisitions, McCabe stories, m/a possibilities and rumours will drive the share now (not to mention market conditions and sentiment regarding the aREIT sector.)

VPG lives on to fight another day, and I take great heart in knowing that over a hundred million shares were bought today at prices averaging over .11 cents. I would not be surprised to see a return to .13 or .135 tomorrow and then it's only a matter of time before the next push is on. Glad I hold and I'll keep holding. Got some more today at .12, so it's time to sit back and relax. Good luck to all, and particularly to those who have been in here for a while. Well done.