"I'm pretty certain that VUL is in the process of a completing the right shoulder of a reverse head & shoulders formation, which if it completes would be a bullish reversal from the correction of the last couple of months. I would then expect a resumption of the uptrend (that led to that $14.20 blow-off top in that earlier phase).
Early days but this 30 minutes chart going back to early Feb might give an early insight to what will unfold on the daily. It is bullish. That's consistent with the fundamentals, as the company is very focussed and "on it", the sector is very strong and we still have a "world's best" location (my term). This combined bullish FA + TA view was part of my assurance before buying a few more today following the appointment of the former Tesla Head of Battery and Supply Chain to Vulcan's Board of Directors. I don't have time to better annotate the chart at present but the reverse H&S seems clear enough (on a 30 minute / bar analysis )."See what TA works for you - don't restrict yourself to conventional 'wisdom'Obviously I'm happy that worked out but I want to highlight for anyone interested in TA how that call was able to be made even after a 3 month correction,
off a 30 minute chart done right then, in real time, by basically applying fractal theory to a shorter time period (30 minutes) than would normally be used to call a trend reversal (e.g. daily or weekly, say). Sure, it's harder and ballsier to make a 3 month trend reversal call off a shorter time period - because short term volatility can make it hard to see through the noise, and to pull out a trend reversal that might operate for weeks or months or more from then. There's a lot of data to look at on a 30 minute basis and it's a matter of judgment which bits look to be significant and which are just trading noise.
Importantly, however, in seeking to make money I never look for easy solutions or to follow the herd - because someone else will probably have been there before me, and skimmed it. Rewards for opportunities that most others have not seen can be fantastic. This chart shows that a more difficult and ballsy call
can work, and that was my point. I don't look for assurance: I look to make money. Frankly, I don't mind if no-one sees value in what I see. In fact it may be a blessing - competitive advantage etc. So, I won't debate this with anyone; I'm simply offering it to fellow Vulcaneers as a personal insight FWIW. Next point ...
Vulcan is easy to be bullish aboutIn fairness to Vulcan's people,
bullishTA is so much easier with Vulcan, because of the superb management of MD Francis Wedin and his team. When this is applied to a tremendous lithium resource - Europe's largest - which is strategically - I should say 'exquisitely' - located near numerous battery and chemical factories and a huge market of consumers, and which has access to clever and hard working Germans and others, and a highly supportive regulatory environment, the backdrop provides a fantastic tailwind, especially given a materially under-supplied market. Happy days.
Today's chart.I did this chart initially for my own purposes - to help see the big picture given recent volatility. I soon reached the view that others may (or may not) want to see it too; friends and colleagues have Vulcan too, so here you go - FWIW.
Today's chart shows me that reverse 21 March called Reverse Head and Shoulders in context, and also focusses on the last month's trading. I made (for myself) several comments within the chart and won't repeat them all here. However some thoughts were:
- it was indeed a Reverse H&S forming by late March and, true to form, it marked a bullish reversal from the previous 3 months' correction;
- the Reverse H&S was followed by a distinct uptrend, within a well defined channel (which was about $1.50 thick, implying big moves potential);
- there was a very Bullish breakout ABOVE that up channel, at the start of August;
- importantly, that breakout was supported by strong volumes - larger than normal, even at the higher prices (suggesting obvious insto. buying);
- the stock surged during August by ~$5, which was the width of a broad trading region between ~$5 and ~ $10 pre. the breakout;
- although there's been a healthy pullback from the ~$15.50 peak, the stock seems to want to go again - it's likely to coil up like a spring;
- given the macros for the sector and Vulcan itself, and the significant MCs of the larger producers, I'm very, very positive (still - have been since first bought in the 30's) about Vulcan because while not yet in production it has some unique advantages, an incredibly good location, an absence of sovereign risk elements that apply to some other aspiring producers and an incredibly supportive regulatory regime - and, critically, highly capable and credible management and a highly capable, multi-skilled and apt team.
Fantastic stuff!
