todays update, page-21

Looks like 0.48 is the next support level below. Nice gap above btw 0.56 and 0.575. 200 EMA at just under 0.48 should provide a bounce. Hmm mebbe another purchase at that level tomorrow. Already oversold. Based on the following I would be surprised if she does not show a good recovery tomorrow. I tjhink this for the following reasons:

"Base case estimates of production for the September Quarter 2009 range between an average of 5,500 to 6,200 bopd gross (2,200 to 2,500 bopd net to CVN). The range of uncertainty is a function of the complexity of the reservoirs encountered at L44-W and Bo Rang. Modest success from the current drilling and testing program would move estimates to the upper end of this range and set the foundation for production growth in the December Quarter 2009 with additional drilling in the current focus area. December Quarter 2009 production is forecast to peak at between 8,000 to 10,000 bopd gross (3,200 to 4,000 bopd net to CVN) and will be impacted by the timing of the approval of a new production license application by the DMF in addition to the factors outlined for September Quarter 2009

Also



From Q report June 09 it was reported that oil flows were at 3210 bopd to CVN.

So 2500 bopd is now predicted which is a 22 % decline. counter that with poe at about $ 72 per barrel and I think a 15 to 12 % SP delcine is reasonable.

Counter that with

„h Bo Rang-2 Exploration/Appraisal Well: Initially tested up to 1,200 bopd over a short period before well was required to be sidetracked (Bo Rang-2ST1) due to operational issues

that looks promising !

plus all the other stuff in the new tenements and when (not if) they resolve just that one well and then add whats coming in what I regard as close to elephant territory and I think although I may have paid a tad more than what was offered (0.533 vs 0.52) I am comfortable for the time being. The new territory looks very promising.

Also CVN is awaiting approval to put some wells into production after the 90 day trials.

My prediction si that momentum will follow tomorrow morning and just maybe get under 0.5 but that should be the new base and there are plenty of well tests and production permits imminent. Was CVN very conservative this time with their production forecasts ??? I mean 1200 bopd with issue sto resolve just from the one well.

Was there not a kick back in one of the other wells ??? ; )