You miss a couple of points.
Not all businessmen and women fly business class. Those who fly economy class often pay high fares, their median fare being higher than more price-sensitive leisure travellers. So if there's fewer such passengers, that's a concern for QAN as median revenue per seat may decline.
Airlines typically only make a smallish percentage of seats on most flights available for frequent flyers, although as I understand it, it's not identical for every flight. Redeeming points for a Melbourne - SYD trip would not be top of the pops for large numbers of the FFs with high points balances, as it's generally 'more bang for one's buck' to use for business class on international flights, or upgrades to same internationally.
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