I have watched this for a long time and WBA is at the low limit to equity account. If they sell off than they drop below 20% and cannot equity account the income. In these circumstances they would sell the lot earning 8 cents on an asset valued at above 1.50 doesnt help their income statement.
I dont think it is WBA as they would have had to disclose the sales by now. They do need to solve their problems and as such selling out would help TGR in the long term as everyone always looks to them being weak as a cornerstone investor. Given their past performance I am not sure they would sell as it may well really focus all their future on their business which seems to go from bad to very bad each year.
The seasonal risk re water temperature off Tasmania may be concerning people going into summer. The fact that some analysts have lowered targets may also contribute.
The fact that capex and need for more seems higher than originally projected and the start of an era of debt. This coupled with the need to underwrite the dividend as well.
This is the riskiest time for this investment if it gets through this ramp-up without damage or significant problems than they should re-rate again.
I do think that its a good share but its not without risks as all biological agri businesses are as are the deep cycles.
Not a free ride but to date well communicated strategy and clear measurement against those objectives.
TGR Price at posting:
$1.68 Sentiment: LT Buy Disclosure: Held
