ARU Chart Thread, page-342

If all goes to plan, in 5 years (end 2026) ARU will have been producing for about 1.5-2 years. Assuming project financing is 50% debt 50% equity, then ARU will have to raise $550m in equity. Let's assume that's done at 35c, about double today's price (yes, I hope it's at a higher price than that once offtake deals are disclosed in the next few months). Total SOI will be about 3bn (assuming no additional equity raisings).

My simple analysis, not accounting for ongoing bullish market sentiment for any materials (like rare earths) that both enable the green economy and feed the push for supply diversification, both of which could increase NdPr product price higher, or positive operational performance, is that Nolans, with an NPV of $1.4bn, should see ARU priced at the bare minimum of 45c a share.

Having said that, consider the following. A quote from LYC's 2016 annual report: "At the end of FY2016, LYC had completed the start-up phase of operations with 100% of capacity commissioned and operating." I'd argue that might be the same point at which ARU finds itself at the end of 2026. At that time LYC had 3.5bn shares on issue, and their s/p was around 70c = mcap $2.45bn. Like for like that would put ARU's s/p above 80c. Not unreasonable.

Remember though, LYC was having major Malaysian issues at that time. And the NdPr oxide price back then was 260,000 RMB/kg. Today it's 595,000. What will it be at the end of 2026, your guess is as good as mine. Factor all that in to the LYC-ARU comparison