I understand that as a holder one tends to see things a little more optimistic (holders bias) than a prospective holder (me, with my cognitive dissonance
).
You guys are saying:
- Dr Sud will exercise the 200m options in the next 21 days and finance no problem
- Dr Sud will keep - and not dump - his allotment
- Dilution is well known in the market and hence reflected in the current SP
- Dilution will not create downward pressure on the SP
I am not competent to have ideas about the more qualitative assessment of the companies strategy as I am to new to the stock and market segment and the company itself. From the C4 it is clear the that 4 quarters are left under present cashburn, it will be shorter if R&D and other costs are ramping up. ... So, capital must come in ... positive announcements re CBD et al. must follow.
From the outset, I was wondering what the margin of safety would be. It would surprise me if Charlie Munger would buy this business proposal.
My guess is that all 4 above conditions will only partially met. ... But then, my guess is as good as yours ... (and you have spent much more time over the details).
Good to have had this conversation.
GLTAH