HI, I actually don't mind your analysis, largely factual and on point. But I think you're missing one ingredient - and that is the head of steam building against the Chinese stranglehold in ALL our (the West's) supply chains.
There's three in particular that I see; Ti, Potash (and Pot) and RE.
So from a strictly fundamental free market view, I'm going to say you're probably on the money.
But that's not where we (the West) find ourselves. China has already played games with Japan around the supply of REs and it recently signalled a reduction of Potash exports to reserve supplies "for local needs". As they pull this stunt more and more often I'm guessing you'll see that resources and mines that weren't previously feasible / economic / probable / fund-able get pulled into focus.
Just my 2c.
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