few years ago I started seeing a certain logo, an insignia. I saw it on on billboards on freeways...I was seeing it at my local shopping places...I was noticing it in every third window in retailers at large shopping centres . It didn't matter if it was a furniture shop or a little clothing boutique. It was everywhere and growing fast:
What the heck is that?...
Supermarkets and shops in large shopping centre all deal with real estate. How much suppliers need to pay to have their goods at the optimum height on the shelf. Yep, there is a lot of deals being done.A new supplier might have to pay back 5% in rebates to the supermarket for prime place. The same is true for those shops in larger shopping centres and their respective shop windows. It's all about space and being in front of customer's noses. So much % of business is done last minute and on a spree as customers walk past.
What % of a front window prime real estate is occupied by signage? You put your best deals in the windows, you put your best products up front. Window space is premium.
I knew something was happening with AfterPay...I got in quite late...$7 a share was late. My problem at the time was that I had very little spare cash...
(Has my situation changed since then? Not really, thats for another post, another time... ). So I got in using a leveraged product. Quite risky but if the underlying goes up, well you are going to make some sorta bang for your buck. The beauty is that as it goes up, you can plough back your profits and leverage even higher. We know how this story played out, I actually ended up getting out a long time back and just kept a small position to see where this thing went.
Now you can't really compare a global payments company with a Bio Pharma...or can you?
DRAWING PARALLELSAfterPay started off small...but the good thing that they did was they filled a spot. Effectively they were a disruptor....of what? Of an old and outdated Layby system. Layby was cumbersome, it involved you having to not only put a deposit down but in most cases there'd be a fee. The super charger for AfterPay's business was that
THE CUSTOMER DOESN'T PAY.
Remember that one, I have highlighted it for you, we will come back to this.
Err..... Umm...so Mozz, who pays?
The retailer.
Why the heck would a retailer PAY a customer to come in to buy something? Well go back to my intro. Why the heck would a supplier PAY a retailer to carry their goods...for an increase in volume...and prime real estate.
In the same way, once this snowball starts moving...., it gets bigger.
As more customers jump on board (as it is free for them as long as they pay on time), the more publicity, the more demand and the wheels are in motion.Now the fees that AfterPay can command aren't small, yes the fixed transaction fee might be, but thats probably their actual cost, it's $0.30 per transaction. But on top of this is a massive 3 to 7% fee the retailer pays for being a privileged customer of AfterPay! That's a lot.
Sure I get it Mozz....what I don't get is how is this at all relevant to me?Like in the early days, not many knew who AfterPay was, they only had a few local retailers on board, but how the word spread. In the very same way we are very early into this story but the business end of it is is drawing nearer.
The Opening of the IND will be the opening of a global gate. Once we cross this hurdle, in my humble views, we will be in a different arena, not unlike AfterPay was going from strength to strength firstly in Aus, then jumping over to NZ but the real story came when they hit the US and UK markets. The uptake was a LOT quicker, I vaguely remember back in the day the numbers and being impressed at the time. Paradigmers, we may yet see this similar trajectory with our own holding. We may first get a sample...a taste with provisional sales in Aus first. Sure we have a long way to go but once we are licensed, it will be some sort of acceleration (my views).
THE FEATURESSo we know that AfterPay offers the customer a convenience of a delayed payment system that costs the customer nothing. It's a convenient feature. They had a snazzy market campaign and they spread mainly through word of mouth but also utilising social media.
How about us?
Well fundamentally for a product to do well it has to be wanted. No point investing in something that doesn't make life better, easier or have some big benefit for the ultimate customer. In our case pain reduction, and function improving isn't just a nice thing to have...it's a necessity....in some cases it can be life changing and even life saving.
There can be nothing motivating as much as pain and the desire to stop it. Patients will go to a number of lengths and Docs will prescribe it if their patients are desperate for it. Yes there are external forces attempting to subdue the over prescription of harsher drugs but finally apart from surgery at the end of the day, what else can they do?It sets up our demand profile nicely and all I'm inferring up to this point is PAIN!
On top of pain our additional benefits (subject to studies) include an increase in function of the joints. You can then add in a potential of decrease of stiffness and the patient's view and impressions of conducting daily activities.
The above is super, imagine delivering all of that but for the
first time it is safe to do so, there are little if any side effects and certainly no serious adverse effects to date.
So what I'm trying to impress upon you is that if AfterPay is such a hit, can you just fathom how much of a hit we MIGHT be one day...even if we only address a small section of our total addressable market. It's only my views, it will take some time...but when this thing happens...it will be a different beast. The numbers are potentially quite nutty.
ADDING TO OUR STORYI love the above section...the potential improvement of pain is a big one, doing it safely is as, if not more, important. Bringing back functionality and reduction of stiffness of the joints adds spades....but its the lingering durability that bolsters what we have.
But Mozz, no point in having a you-beaut awesome product that works for a good percentage of the target market, if the target market is tiny. If it represents a small number.Our TAM is huge. Not unlike Afterpay's global potential.
BONUS 008The main accelerant of course to our potential story is taking a disease and addressing it....but it's the regression factor that's a nitro booster. Specially if there is nothing else out there that has this function.DMOAD indeed; the potentially regression of systemic damage (my views), to be further enlightened by 008. Yes 008 is a very small study, it is just intended as a link It will potentially show us that :
1) What happens in the serum is also happening in the synovium - ie the link between the two
2) The inflammatory markers unique to the synovium are being addressed by our own action of iPPS
RECAP?Ah this is a new last minute on the fly paragraph I wasn't going to really add, but I know there are a number on here that are new to us. In truth I could actually spend a heck of a lot of time researching each point below. This paragraph is not meant to be a deep dive...but it will give some of you new guys a taste as to why I do believe we will one day be as great as some of the great companies out there if all goes to plan...
- iPPS helps to increase blood flow, it's a mild blood thinner but it is NOT TOO MUCH of a blood thinner as that in itself causes many problems
- iPPS plays an ACTIVE role in the chondrogenesis processes
- iPPS assists to stimulate vital proteins and reactions to assist in the building of what I like to call the scaffolding, the extracellular structures
- iPPS helps to stimulate the all important, itself multi actionary fluid known as Hydraluron fluid. It is this fluid that plays a vital role in not only shock absorber type functions but many other functions throughout the various tissues in the body. The lubricant role we know it is famous for is vital to ensure the mechanics of the load bearing joints. I can list as many points again about just the other amazing features of this one fluid. It is iPPS that stimulates the production of this fluid and does so NATURALLY.
- iPPS facilitates proteins to bind to one another to assist in addressing the inflammation that occurs in and around the joint in the case of OA
- iPPS plays an important role of binding itself with other proteins to play an active role in the repair and stimulation of vital cell growth. Unlike Heparin, it stays binded, it maintains this active role.
- iPPS downregulates inflammatory cytokines. This word downregulation is one of the most important concepts as a lot of single targeted drugs result in complete HALTING of such mediators. This is counter productive. Mozz speak? You want to ease off on the inflammation just enough so that the body is allowed a chance to work properly and doesn't go into the never ending vicious cycle melt-down of adding and promotion of inflammation. It needs a chance to get a breather and then to start re balancing and get on with repairing.
I quietly suspect there is even more to come than just the above... we will learn of more of these invaluable actions as the research progresses and the data gets back to us.
R&D Day? I want my own R&D Day with Dr Krishnan...I could list 30 questions off the bat. If this ever happens at some future point you know where I will be posting the answers!
Ok let's get back to the AfterPay comparison.
BONUS 2?I'm re-reading over those last few bullet points, each one to me is a precious point, a precious action, a bonus for us. I feel more confident knowing what's under the hood. Yes If I'm a suffering patient I just want the pain to end, and safely and without ramifications. If I'm an investor, I'm a bit more nosey and would like to know what's under this beast of a hood.
So what's this Bonus 2? Well all of the above is great...but I want have growth like AfterPay...I want growth like the crazy sales of Humira...that sheer acceleration. Have any of you guys been on the Superman ride in Queensland?
The first part of the ride is one of the most thrilling I have experienced.....it's an actual launch that consists of acceleration apparently from 0 to 100 in 2 seconds flat! I only had the chance to go it once and I basically laughed through that entire launch right up to the top of the first loop. I was laughing cos it was just such a thrill...such a rush.
The below images don't do it justice... The two red arrows are the same parts of the ride. The ride has to make it up that huge first loop with such incredible force...it moves fast! The thrill is almost as much as I hope to get after one year of sales in the US and Europe of iPPS.
The Superman Escape ride at the Gold Coast, Australia, complete adrenaline rush.Eerr .....Mozz, love your roller coaster adventure stories... bonus two?
Oh apologies I was still remembering the ride memories ....yes of course, lets continue.
Multilayering. Like Humira we will eventually have more indications we can treat. Yes broadening of the label is superb for something like OA, additional indications is what will propel us, not unlike the Superman ride, further and be an attractive draw card for a big Big pharma distributional deal. When the Big Pharmas get a real sense of what is possible such as Hearts, ARDS etc, I have a feeling they are going to open that Covid sales war chest of theirs... (Spec views).
ALL GOOD THINGS TAKE TIMEAfterPay started slow....and then it got it's strides happening. Outside Aus it was almost totally unknown back in 2016 and 2017, once they hit USA in 2018 and quickly gained traction reaching $100 million net revenue, it was noticed!Let's take a look at their trajectory in underlying sales:
Why were they so successful? This summary states it well:
"This is a product that people love, use and have come to rely on, all with better, fairer terms than were ever available to them than with traditional consumer credit. "1Let's take that one and break it down a bit:
"A product that people love..."Ahh mate, are they going to love iPPS? Are they going to love that in most of their cases the pain disappears, again like APT sales, slowly at first, perhaps not much difference at all after injections 1 to 5 but by 6, 7 and 8....things start to change (my views).
"...and have come to rely on"Yes it will be about trust in the product, is it safe, is it efficacious, does it work?
"...all with better, fairer terms..."Will this product be safe, will it be durable? How does it compare to the nasty NSADIS, the ogre-like Opiods and the scary Steroids that are out there?
Once the Docs know about iPPS's safety profile, there is a very good chance we will become the go-to solution. The Docs will explain the difference between the old std of care and what this can iPPS can do and why it is so much better and importantly safer for longer term use.
IN RETROSPECTWe often look back at Afterpay, at Amazon, at Apple and Microsoft, heck some of us look back at BHP and RIO....but I'm sick of looking back and discovering out of all the thousands of shares I once had in AfterPay...I have under 100 left....thats not right...Yes it was good I de-risked at the time, but in truth I wasn't sure of how big Afterpay could get and the constant thought of their competitors sneaking up bugged me...I'm talking so many:
...even Mastercard and PayPal and now even APPLE PAY have all said they want in...too crowded for me!
THE CUSTOMER DOES NOT PAYRemember we covered this concept above with AfterPay? Why does the retailer do it, to generate more business. More foot traffic, They can attract a customer they may not have been able to get.In the same way, our own customers in most cases will also not pay. It will be the insurers and the government. Sure at the end of the day we all pay a small sum to get us all inured. When there is a crazy year and we have a fire and hailstorms and the odd Cat 3 cyclone, we do all end up paying a fraction more.
However, the insurers will certainly look at us with our new repurposed drug...and I think they may like what they see.
Stepping into their shoes for a sec...what are the questions they will ask?
- What can it do?
- Who does it affect?
- How much will it save the insurer in terms of less probability of a TKA/THA?
- What will be the indirect savings of not having to bail out so many hospitalisations and drug overdoses due to the nasty current std of care.
Paradigmers ready for another super bonus?
WE HAVE NO COMPETITIONSure there are some tiny plays, there are some stem cell research mucking about...yes I know there is PRP and even direct injections into the knee with HA fluid for example...mate, do you really think any of these are going to be actual competition in the next 5 years?
Now I'm not going to be Mozz the one eyed darned pirate with a bird on his shoulder (thats for the 19th of September right?)....I know one day there might be possible competition and it wont take 6 or 12 injections, it might very well be one or two..it might be a set of weekly pills...it might have as much efficacy as iPPS...but until it does...until one of you brings it forth and says MOZZ...this is what you really have to be worried about, I'm not buying it...
I am learning from my past mistakes with AfterPAY and I'm keeping a decent core right till either the very end OR until something really path changing occurs and in not a good way.
Keep them eyes opened.
Do your own research and enjoy the very long ride till the end with me (not advice)
REFERENCE https://techcrunch.com/2021/08/02/the-next-generation-of-global-payments-afterpay-square/
(20min delay)