I absolutely would not want a low ball offer for my shares if all goes well.
In the futures market, the natural gas contract for October rose above $5 per one million British thermal units,
One thousand cubic feet (Mcf) of natural gas equals 1.037 MMBtu, this gives a value of $4.82/Mcf
Assuming a 1.2Tcf, that gives an inground resource value of 5.8 Billion giving NWE at 20% a resource value in ground of almost 1.2 Billion! Taking back of envelope calculation to include costs this could be implied to have an in the hand value of approx 250M to NWE.
The question is what is the potential value of NWE share of this resource to MIN considering they will develop this field? A 20% premium to this not out of the realms of possibility.
Now let's consider just one of the multiple additional targets on tenement,Lead E, a monster target no doubt to be further Appraised by seismic in the coming months. It is a 65Km2 massive target and definately no outside the realms of possibility that this could be a 1-2TcF monster.
MIN potentially have all the future gas required to secure their decarbonisation strategy right here make no mistake they will want it.
The Lockyer Deep-1 discovery has certainly achieved to date a fantastic result.This was given a COS of 38% and given its success has futher derisked all plays on the tenement. Assuming a low ball 1Tcf target at Lead E and applying a COS at 38%, this gives a risked potential future value to NWE in the hand of 0.38(COS)x0.2(20%)x1(1Tcf)x100M= 76M
250M + 76M = 326M
Assuming 1.2Tcf at Lockyer Deep and a potential target of 1Tcf at Lead E and assuming they put will pay a premium of 20% to the calculate value above this gives a TO price of 390M.
With 6Billion shares and options on issue this gives a price per share of 6.5c.
Now assume 1.2Tcf at Lockyer Deep comes in at 2Tcf. 10c not out of the realm of possibility.
Just my thoughts.
As always DYOR but very exciting times indeed.
NWE Price at posting:
1.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held