PV1 0.00% 2.0¢ provaris energy ltd

Ann: PRL:Compressed Hydrogen Shipping Memorandum of Understanding, page-73

  1. 1,365 Posts.
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    My take on a current investment in GEV:

    Global Energy Ventures (ASX: GEV)

    Corporate:

    No of Shares on issue

    456m

    1

    Market Cap

    $38m (based on $0.083 share price)

    2

    Cash on Hand1

    $7m (including $300k govt grant)

    3

    Enterprise Value

    $31m

    4

    Options on issue

    97m (expiring May 2023, exercisable @ $0.12)

    5

    Top 20

    ~40% of share register

    6

    Performance Rights3

    Management has 15m performance rights

    7

    Directors & Management2

    Very experienced in energy + business/finance

    8

    Shareholding of Management

    13% (aligned with company success)

    1. Raised $6.3m in February 2021 @ $0.10 – currently trading below that which may represent a good time for entry now
    2. Director Salaries are ~$1m per annum – slightly concerning, but reflects the skill set
    3. Only vest if the share price goes above $0.45 and $0.55 for 30 days – this is good

    Business/Projects:

    Integrated business model covering the value chain forregional marine transport projects – I like this because it generates sustainable recurring revenue in the future

    1. Compressed Natural Gas LNG ship
      1. Commercialisation ready, scoping study completed in 2019 proved their commercial scale
      2. Lower emissions ship
      3. Ship design enables the storage of more LNG for shipment
      4. Had several MOUs in place, but with the move away from fossil fuels, the LNG project is on the back burner now

    1. Compressed Hydrogen ship
      1. Commenced October 2020 as a “world first”
      2. Following the global mega trend for green hydrogen
      3. Signed multiple MOUs between October 2020 until August 2021 to develop various projects

    i.Most significant is the MOU with PRL in August 2021 for a feasibility study to export from the HyEnergy project to Asia-Pacific

    ii.Has received a $300k government grant to progress the feasibility study

    iii.GEV anticipates completing the feasibility study in H1 2022

      1. Another significant MOU is with Ballard Power Systems

    i.Working together to develop a hydrogen fuel cell to power the ship from hydrogen in the ships storage tanks

    ii.If successful will be a zero emission transport solution

    iii.MOU expires December 2022

      1. Scoping Study completed in March 2021 proving their concept is very competitive for Australia to Singapore and reasonably competitive for Australia to Japan, South Korea and China routes
      2. Technology really simplifies the transportation problem and high costs previously associated with hydrogen

    Broad Timeline:

    Sep 2021

    June 2022

    August 2022

    December 2022

    March 2023

    December 2026

    1

    In principle approval for 430t hydrogen ship

    Completion of HyEnergy feasibility study

    Will need to raise more cash (hopefully at higher SP)

    Full approval for 430t hydrogen ship

    Commence construction of 430t hydrogen ship

    First operations/shipment of hydrogen

    My View:

    • Speculative buy, smaller investment now, increase investment if the company progresses feasibility study with the HyEnergy Project
    • Plenty going on with the company and they are throwing everything into the shipping transportation of hydrogen
    • I like that they have plans to build an integrated business
    • Hydrogen is where all the investment money is pouring into, generally that is a good theme to follow
    • They will need to raise loads more cash in the future to progress their operations
    • Once they get to the ship construction phase, the company would need to have an offtake agreement in place so they can secure project finance (i.e. debt rather than equity)
    • For $0.083 ($38m market cap) vs a potential future trillion dollar industry, GEV is worth a speculative investment if you are willing to wait 5 years

    Major Risks:

    • If HyEnergy project is not viable the company will be back to square one
    • Future capital raisings
    • Project delays

    All IMO and not investment advice.

    Wolf

 
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