Squidd, after reading that presentation, I have definetly come around to your line of thinking. I have listed my reasons for this below.
- On the opening page it says "Seeking Strategic Partners". It is only small, but this to me reads as though they are still looking for a strategic partner, rather then in the process of negotiating with.
- Drilling to recommence in November 2009. First question you have to ask is why is drilling recommencing. Is it because they have virtually secured a strategic partner and it is part of the process of moving forward, or is it because strategic partners require more results before signing up. If it is the later, then don't expect an announcement on strategic partners prior to November. In fact, it will probably not be until mid November at the earliest that they get any results back.
- They have indicated that they are submitting an application for mining contract in September. I would imagine that strategic partners would want the application approved before signing up.
- The timelines have changed since the last presentation on 12th May. They are as follows
12th May Timeline
- Identify Strategic offtake Partners (Mid 2009)
- JORC Resource Definition (3/4 2009)
- Social & Environmental Impact Assess (End 2009)
- Feasibility Study (End 2009)
- Fiscal Terms (End 2009)
- Project Financing (End 2009)
- Construction (2010)
4th September Timeline
- Definition of Indicated/Inferred Resources (2009)
- Feasibility Study to be Submitted (2009)
- Social & Environmential Impact Assess. (2009)
- Fiscal Terms to be Finalised (2009)
- Strategic Partners to be introduced (2009)
- Number of other items (2010)
- Execute Offtake Contracts (2010)
A couple of things to point out here. Firstly it appears that instead of strategic partners being announced mid 2009, it appears to have been pushed back further, behind things such JORC Definition, Feasibility Study etc. So we are now looking at the end of the year.
Secondly, is "Execute Offtake Contracts" the same thing as project financing? If so, they have pushed this back to 2010, and after a number of other items.
Other things of interest to point out from the presentation include:
- Operating Margin down from US$44.18/t to US$41.54/t
- Not a lot of talk of 35mt to 50mt pa. Just 35mt
Althought there does not seem to be anything to incriminating as far as the long term prospects of the project are concerned, it does appear that an announcement on strategic partners has been put back until later in the year at the earliest.
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