Really confusing analysis @Flambeau, i appreciate anyway trying to quantify fair value, but your analysis is overly simplistic.
Its not correct to extrapolate 2021 NPAT as a stable earnings level.
Here is how i look at it:
2021 NPAT: $80.7m
+ post tax impairment: $76.5m -> incorrect to assume that A2m management will overproduce and write-off $100m+ of inventory every year
+ post tax savings if US division was shut: $23.4m -> rational mgmt response is to shut down segment if no profitable outlook is possible
+ back out one off transaction costs from MVM (post tax): $7.3m -> non-recurring
= a "stabilised" 2021 NPAT of $188m
divided by shares outstanding that gets you to EPS of $0.253. Now, apply a 15x P/E multiple = $3.79.
+ the $1.37 value of NTA (most of which is cash) = $5.16
Ann: Results Presentation FY21, page-184
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