EV is $6.9b by te looks (at current SP)
No recovery in wholesale in FY22 according to futures.
MARKET INFORMATION Company INFORMATION Pumice Share Price 16.93 19.07 24.52 21.16 19.07 15.32 7.18 5.67 Pumice Bitmap
Market Capitalisation ($m) 11,068 12,867 16,411 13,877 12,507 9,546 4,473 3,533 Pumice Total Debt ($m) 3,882 3,108 3,346 2,963 2,850 3,108 3,185 3,185 Pumice Cash & Cash equivalents ($m) 259 252 154 463 115 141 88 88 Pumice Minority interest / Other ($m) 387 301 293 432 282 239 253 253 Pumice EV 15,078 16,024 19,896 16,809 15,524 12,752 7,823 6,883 Pumice Pumice INVESTMENT SUMMARY OPERATIONAL ASSUMPTIONS A$m FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 A$m FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Net profit [reported] ($m) 218 (408) 541 1,582 905 1,007 (2,058) Electricity portfolio Net profit [adjusted] ($m) 630 701 804 1,018 1,040 808 537 280 Retail (TWh) 14.9 14.6 13.9 13.8 13.6 13.8 14.6 EPS [reported] (¢) 33.3 (60.5) 80.8 241.2 138.0 161.6 (330.3) C&I (TWh) 12.8 12.3 11.2 9.8 9.8 10.6 10.2 EPS [adjusted, basic] (¢) 96.4 103.9 120.1 155.2 158.6 129.7 86.2 44.9 Wholesale (TWh) 11.1 12.7 14.6 15.7 15.8 15.9 15.8 EPS Growth (%) 8% 16% 29% 2% -18% -34% -48% Total electricity sold (TWh) 38.7 39.6 39.7 39.2 39.2 40.3 40.6 PER [adjusted] (x) 17.6 16.3 14.1 10.9 10.7 13.1 19.6 37.7 Electricity Generated 41.0 46.5 45.4 45.5 45.8 45.5 42.7 Dividend (¢) 64 68 91 117 119 98 75 34 Electricity Dispatched 38.2 43.8 43.1 43.1 43.7 43.8 41.1 Payout ratio (%) 66% 65% 76% 75% 75% 76% 87% 75% Electricity rev (incl pool rev) ($m) 7,622 8,269 9,812 10,793 11,518 10,466 9,320 Dividend Yield (%) 3.8% 3.6% 3.7% 5.5% 6.2% 6.4% 10.4% 5.9% Electricity margin ($m) 1,144.0 1,215.0 1,471.0 1,907.0 1,989.0 1,796.0 1,573.0 Franking (%) 100% 100% 80% 80% 80% 80% 0% ?? Electricity margin ($/MWh) 29.5 30.7 37.1 48.7 50.8 44.5 38.8 Shares [period-average, basic] 653,725,754 674,712,378 669,300,000 655,825,043 655,825,043 623,138,096 623,033,791 623,033,791 Electricity margin Retail ($/MWh) 28.7 31.6 34.9 32.8 37.2 36.1 34.1 ENTERPRISE VALUE Electricity margin Business ($/MWh) 3.3 2.9 3.6 3.7 3.5 5.6 4.4 A$m FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Electricity margin Wholesale ($/MWh) 61.1 56.4 65.0 90.7 91.7 77.6 65.4 Enterprise Value 15,078 16,024 19,896 16,809 15,524 12,752 7,823 6,883 Cost of generation ($/MWh) 34.9 35.5 37.1 43.7 49.1 50.8 47.6 EV/EBITDA 10.0x 9.5x 10.7x 7.5x 6.8x 6.3x 4.7x 5.3x EV/EBIT 13.4x 13.2x 14.5x 10.1x 9.4x 9.8x 8.2x 9.4x Gas portfolio EV/FCF (13.3x) 12.6x 33.7x 11.1x 22.3x 10.0x 25.0x 13.5x Retail vol (PJ) 63.0 59.4 58.5 59.9 57.3 58.2 55.9 C&I vol (PJ) 79.1 73.7 61.6 32.3 16.4 15.8 19.4 CASH FLOW Wholesale incl internal vol. sold 92.0 101.1 109.7 87.8 93.4 81.5 83.1 A$m FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Gas sold (PJ) 234.1 234.2 229.8 180.0 167.1 155.5 158.4 EBITDA 1,505 1,689 1,853 2,236 2,285 2,026 1,666 1,300 Gas margin ($m) 732.0 753.0 642.0 687.0 661.0 654.0 520.0 Net interest paid (194) (172) (179) (172) (151) (124) (120) (120) Gas margin ($/GJ) 3.1 3.2 2.8 3.8 4.0 4.2 3.3 Tax paid (147) (166) (292) (159) (263) (233) (114) (127) Cashflow related to SI (142) (64) – – – (7) (122) – Gas margin Retail ($/GJ) 4.9 5.6 5.2 4.2 4.3 3.8 4.8 Other/ Working capital movements 22 (101) (490) 238 (272) 450 (60) – Gas margin Business ($/GJ) 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.4 0.9 0.9 0.7 Net Cash from Operating activities 1,044 1,186 892 2,143 1,599 2,112 1,250 1,053 Gas margin Wholesale ($/GJ) 4.2 4.0 2.8 4.9 4.9 5.2 2.9 Capex (744) (533) (503) (720) (915) (714) (695) (545) (Acquisitions)/ Disposals & Other (1,431) 614 201 91 11 (121) (242) – Average Electricity Customers 2,264 2,255 2,243 2,240 2,233 2,284 2,435 Free cash flow (1,131) 1,267 590 1,514 695 1,277 313 508 Average Gas Customers 1,462 1,437 1,413 1,408 1,421 1,450 1,512 Debt (paid)/drawn 67 (821) 326 (513) (264) 94 212 – EBIT/Cust. 302.2 328.0 374.2 457.5 454.3 349.8 243.0 Dividends paid (344) (446) (517) (682) (774) (719) (573) (210) Other (2) 1 (16) – – – – – Assumptions Equity issued/(bought back) 1,203 (8) (480) (10) (5) (627) (5) – NEM Annual volume weighted ave prices (A$/MWh) Net cash flow (207) (7) (97) 309 (348) 25 (53) 298 NSW 36 54 88 85 92 79 72 62 VIC 32 50 70 99 124 84 51 52 DIVISIONAL BREAKDOWN [EBIT] SA 42 67 123 109 128 73 53 55 A$m FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 QLD 61 64 103 75 83 56 66 57 Retail 321 371 335 120 145 95 133 C&I 67 87 100 82 49 73 58 Profit & Loss Wholesale 1,675 1,828 1,967 2,665 2,757 2,630 2,210 A$m FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Total Energy markets 2,063 2,286 2,403 2,868 2,951 2,798 2,401 Sales Revenue 10,678 11,150 12,584 12,816 13,246 12,160 10,942 Group Operations (729) (842) (814) (919) (1,036) (1,101) (1,091) EBITDA 1,505 1,689 1,853 2,236 2,285 2,026 1,666 1,300 New Investments 26 25 17 33 33 18 9 Depn & Amortisation (379) (478) (485) (567) (625) (720) (707) (566) New Energy 2 (12) 9 – – – 3 EBIT 1,126 1,211 1,368 1,669 1,660 1,306 959 734 Centrally Manged Expenses (236) (246) (248) (313) (288) (415) (372) Net interest (234) (222) (224) (224) (193) (179) (224) Group EBIT 1,126 1,211 1,368 1,669 1,660 1,306 959 734 Tax (262) (287) (338) (428) (427) (319) (199) Minority Interest – (1) (2) – – – 1 BALANCE SHEET [Selected Items] Net Profit [adjusted] 630 701 804 1,018 1,040 808 537 280 A$m FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Abnormal Gain/(Loss) after Tax (412) (1,109) (263) 564 (135) 199 (2,595) Cash 259 252 154 463 115 141 88 Net Profit [reported] 218 (408) 541 1,582 905 1,007 (2,058) PPE 7,502 6,482 6,447 6,757 6,588 6,640 6,283 Intangibles 3,266 3,232 3,286 3,271 3,740 3,638 3,302 EBITDA margin (%) 14.1% 15.1% 14.7% 17.4% 17.3% 16.7% 15.2% Other 4,806 4,638 4,571 4,142 4,378 4,188 5,777 Net Interest Cover [EBIT] (x) 4.8 5.5 6.1 7.5 8.6 7.3 4.3 Total assets 15,833 14,604 14,458 14,633 14,821 14,607 15,450 15,450 Net Debt/EBITDA 2.4 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.9 Debt 3,882 3,108 3,346 2,963 2,850 3,108 3,185 ROTA: EBIT/Total Assets (%) 7.1% 8.3% 9.5% 11.4% 11.2% 8.9% 6.2% Current Liabilities 2,373 2,329 2,731 2,323 2,546 2,388 2,975 2,975 ROE: NPAT/Equity (%) 7.1% 8.6% 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 10.1% 9.8% Other liabilities 3,136 3,346 3,538 3,369 3,533 3,527 6,759 Non Current Liabilities 4,645 4,125 4,153 4,009 3,837 4,247 6,969 Du Pont Analysis Total liabilities 7,018 6,454 6,884 6,332 6,383 6,635 9,944 9,944 A$m FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 Equity 8,815 8,150 7,574 8,301 8,438 7,972 5,506 5,506 Net Profit Margin [adjusted] 5.9% 6.3% 6.4% 7.9% 7.9% 6.6% 4.9% Net debt 3,623 2,856 3,192 2,500 2,735 2,967 3,097 Asset Turnover Ratio 0.67 0.76 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.83 0.71 Net Debt / (Net Debt + Equity) (%) 29.1% 25.9% 29.6% 23.1% 24.5% 27.1% 36.0% Equity Multiplier 1.80 1.79 1.91 1.76 1.76 1.83 2.81 Cash Conversion 92% 90% 74% 111% 88% 122% 89% ROE 7.1% 8.6% 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 10.1% 9.8% BV per share 13.48 12.08 11.32 12.66 12.87 12.79 8.84 Tax burden 70.6% 71.0% 70.4% 70.4% 70.9% 71.7% 73.0% NTA per share 8.49 7.29 6.41 7.67 7.16 6.96 3.54 Interest Burden 79.2% 81.7% 83.6% 86.6% 88.4% 86.3% 76.6% ROE 7.1% 8.6% 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 10.1% 9.8% 5.1% Return on Sales 10.5% 10.9% 10.9% 13.0% 12.5% 10.7% 8.8% ROTA 7.1% 8.3% 9.5% 11.4% 11.2% 8.9% 6.2% 4.8% Asset Turnover Ratio 0.67 0.76 0.87 0.88 0.89 0.83 0.71 ROCE 8.4% 9.9% 11.7% 13.6% 13.5% 10.7% 7.7% 5.9% Equity Multiplier 1.80 1.79 1.91 1.76 1.76 1.83 2.81 ROCE 8.4% 9.9% 11.7% 13.6% 13.5% 10.7% 7.7% ROE 7.1% 8.6% 10.6% 12.3% 12.3% 10.1% 9.7%
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- AGL
- Ann: Appendix 4E and 2021 Annual Report
Ann: Appendix 4E and 2021 Annual Report, page-30
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 10 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add AGL (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
|
|||||
Last
$11.73 |
Change
-0.010(0.09%) |
Mkt cap ! $7.891B |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
$11.72 | $11.80 | $11.68 | $9.201M | 784.0K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
1 | 580 | $11.73 |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
$11.74 | 148 | 1 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
6 | 21147 | 11.720 |
3 | 13747 | 11.710 |
3 | 12750 | 11.700 |
2 | 6939 | 11.690 |
3 | 19886 | 11.680 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
11.750 | 3026 | 1 |
11.770 | 6939 | 1 |
11.780 | 7039 | 2 |
11.790 | 8839 | 3 |
11.800 | 23084 | 7 |
Last trade - 16.10pm 11/10/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
AGL (ASX) Chart |